TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$141,541,542
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,440,096,988
406,065
Markets across
30,522
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,692
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 30, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the Shiba Inu (SHIB) cryptocurrency price range at 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Traders can bet on whether SHIB will fall within specific price bands, with outcomes covering ranges from below $0.0000005 up to above $0.0000135. The price is determined by averaging 60 seconds of real-time pricing data from CF Benchmarks at the exact expiration time.
Resolution is based on the simple average of 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks' Shiba Inu-Dollar Spot Rate (SHIBUSD_RTI) collected immediately before 5 PM EDT on June 30, 2026. Each outcome specifies a price range; if the 60-second average falls within that range, the market resolves to Yes. Ranges are mutually exclusive and cover the full spectrum from below $0.0000005 to above $0.0000135. The official and final value is the average of the 60 RTI prices collected at the last minute before expiration. If no data is available or incomplete at expiration, affected strikes resolve to No.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregate trader conviction about future SHIB price levels and often diverge from spot prices because they incorporate forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk hedging. While spot exchanges show the current market-clearing price, this market prices the probability of specific price ranges at a future date, which can embed different assumptions about volatility, adoption, and macroeconomic conditions. Comparing the implied odds here to analyst forecasts and on-chain metrics can reveal whether traders are pricing in more bullish or bearish scenarios than consensus expectations. The gap between current spot and the market's probability-weighted midpoint often signals where informed traders see asymmetric opportunity.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous limit-order book where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each price range outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share pays $1 if its outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, so the bid-ask spread directly reflects the market's uncertainty about which range SHIB will occupy. Prices range from $0 to $1, with the sum of all outcome probabilities typically near 100 percent. As new information emerges or trader sentiment shifts, the order book adjusts dynamically, allowing you to enter or exit positions at any time before settlement.
This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning price range is determined by where SHIB trades at the specified moment, and all shares corresponding to that range are paid out in full. Positions in non-winning ranges expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the settlement time once data is finalized and validated, allowing winners to withdraw profits promptly.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly or Shiba Inu specifically, shifts in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, changes in on-chain activity and holder concentration, and macroeconomic events that alter risk appetite. Partnerships, exchange listings, or protocol upgrades could also drive significant repricing. Social media sentiment and influencer commentary often create short-term volatility, while broader crypto market cycles and traditional finance stress tests tend to move the market over longer horizons. Tracking whale wallet movements and derivatives funding rates can help anticipate directional pressure before it fully reflects in this market's odds.