TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 21, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event divides the Shiba Inu (SHIB) price range into specific bands on June 21, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Traders can bet on which price range SHIB will fall within, using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index as the pricing source.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks SHIBUSD_RTI for the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 21, 2026. Each outcome represents a distinct price band, and exactly one outcome resolves to Yes based on where the averaged price falls. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds often diverge from near-term spot prices because they incorporate longer-dated expectations and tail-risk hedging. While spot exchanges reflect immediate supply and demand, this market aggregates trader conviction about where SHIB will settle at a future point, potentially pricing in volatility, regulatory shifts, or macro sentiment that spot prices have not yet fully absorbed. Comparing the implied probability here to analyst forecasts or on-chain metrics can reveal whether the market is pricing in bullish or bearish scenarios relative to consensus expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts corresponding to different SHIB price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a discrete outcome, and the price of that contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust, causing the implied odds for each range to move. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how tightly prices cluster around fair value.
This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning range is determined by where SHIB trades at the specified time, and traders holding contracts for that range receive their payout. Until resolution, positions remain open and can be traded, allowing participants to adjust their exposure as new data or market conditions emerge.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly or SHIB specifically, macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin or Ethereum price movements, and any developments tied to the Shiba Inu ecosystem or tokenomics. Shifts in on-chain metrics, large whale transactions, or changes in exchange inflows can also signal trader positioning. Media coverage, exchange listings, or partnerships may drive retail interest and volatility. Traders monitor these signals to anticipate price moves and adjust their bets accordingly.