TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 2, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of Shiba Inu (SHIB) cryptocurrency on July 2, 2026 at 5 PM EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index. The market resolves based on which price band the simple average of 60 seconds of pricing data falls into.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Shiba Inu-Dollar Spot Rate (SHIBUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 2, 2026. Each outcome represents a specific price range, and the market resolves to Yes for the outcome matching the averaged price at exactly the specified time. While external sources like Google or Coinbase may provide reference prices, the official resolution uses only CF Benchmarks' RTI data. If data is incomplete or unavailable at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No.
Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader conviction about future price movement, often diverging from current spot prices because they embed forward-looking sentiment and tail-risk premiums. While spot exchanges show today's price, this market captures what informed participants expect at a specific future moment. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in bullish momentum, bearish pressure, or consolidation. Prediction odds tend to be more reactive to macro catalysts and on-chain signals than lagging spot prices, making them a useful contrarian or confirmatory signal for directional bias.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome band has its own bid-ask spread, and the midpoint reflects the market's implied probability for that range. Traders profit by correctly predicting which band SHIB will occupy at settlement, with payouts tied to the accuracy of their range selection. Liquidity and spreads vary by outcome popularity, so more consensus outcomes typically trade tighter than tail scenarios.
This market resolves around Jul 2, 2026, at which point the final SHIB price is verified against credible public sources to determine which range outcome is correct. Traders holding shares in the winning band receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is automated once the settlement price is confirmed, ensuring transparent and rapid payoff distribution. Until that moment, positions remain open and tradable, allowing participants to exit early or adjust their exposure.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, Shiba Inu ecosystem developments such as Shibarium upgrades or partnership news, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite. Bitcoin and Ethereum price action often drive altcoin sentiment, so movements in larger assets can ripple through SHIB odds. On-chain metrics like whale accumulation, exchange inflows, or burn events may also influence trader positioning. Market-wide volatility spikes, Fed policy changes, and shifts in retail participation can rapidly reprrice this market as new information emerges.