TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,590,312
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,439,516,703
404,175
Markets across
30,277
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,685
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 11, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the price range of SHIB (Shiba Inu) cryptocurrency on July 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT using CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index. The market resolves based on which price band the simple average of 60 seconds of pricing data falls into.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of the CF Benchmarks' Shiba Inu-Dollar Spot Rate (SHIBUSD_RTI) calculated from 60 seconds of data collected before 5 PM EDT on July 11, 2026. The price is divided into distinct ranges, each representing a separate outcome. Only one outcome resolves to Yes based on which range contains the averaged price at exactly the specified time and date. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders collectively believe SHIB will be worth at the specified time, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot price reflects immediate supply and demand, this market captures forward-looking sentiment over an 18-month horizon. Traders who believe SHIB will outperform consensus expectations can profit by taking positions at favorable odds, while skeptics can hedge or short. The gap between current spot price and the market's implied price range reveals whether traders expect appreciation, depreciation, or consolidation ahead.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific SHIB price ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome share represents a bet on whether SHIB will close within that range at the resolution time. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate greater perceived probability. Traders can enter or exit positions at any time before the market closes, and the final price of winning shares reflects the collective conviction of all participants who traded throughout the event window.
This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the SHIB price at that moment is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by which price range SHIB occupies at exactly 5pm EDT on July 11, 2026. Traders holding shares in the correct range receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution is final once the price is confirmed, and all winnings are credited to trader accounts shortly thereafter.
Major catalysts for SHIB price movement include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, developments within the Shiba Inu ecosystem (token burns, new partnerships, or protocol upgrades), macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite, Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, and shifts in retail or institutional sentiment toward meme coins. Unexpected exchange listings or delistings, celebrity or influencer endorsements, and broader crypto market rallies or crashes can also drive significant repricing. Traders monitoring this market should watch on-chain metrics, social sentiment, and general crypto news to anticipate how these factors might reshape price expectations before settlement.