TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 25, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Shiba Inu (SHIB) will reach or exceed various price thresholds on June 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT. The price is determined by averaging 60 seconds of CF Benchmarks data immediately before the expiration time.
Resolution is based on the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SHIBUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on June 25, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds that threshold at exactly the specified time. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing data for accurate price determination.
Prediction market odds on this market reflect what traders collectively believe SHIB's price will be at the specified time, which often diverges from current spot prices on crypto exchanges. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, prediction markets embed longer-term expectations and risk premiums. Comparing the implied price from market odds to today's SHIB valuation can reveal whether traders expect appreciation, depreciation, or sideways movement over the next 18 months. This divergence sometimes signals market sentiment that hasn't yet been priced into live trading venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different price outcomes for SHIB. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract's price directly reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring by the resolution date. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, bids and asks adjust, moving the market price. The tighter the spread between buy and sell orders, the more confident the market consensus; wider spreads suggest uncertainty or lower liquidity around particular price levels.
This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed once SHIB's price is verifiable from credible public sources. The specific price level at that moment determines which contract holders receive their payout. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event time once reliable data is available. Traders holding contracts aligned with the final verified price collect their winnings, while those on the wrong side of the trade realize a loss.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly or Shiba Inu specifically, macroeconomic shifts that influence risk appetite for volatile assets, and developments within the Shiba Inu ecosystem such as protocol upgrades or partnership news. Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements often correlate with SHIB, so broader market sentiment matters significantly. Social media momentum, exchange listings or delistings, and changes in developer activity can also sway trader positioning. Unexpected geopolitical or monetary policy shifts may trigger sharp repricing across crypto markets.