TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 6, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This market predicts whether Shiba Inu (SHIB) will trade at or above specific price thresholds at 5 PM EDT on July 6, 2026. Each outcome represents a different minimum price level, with thresholds ranging from $0.000000001 to $0.000013 and above.
Resolution depends on the simple average of sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' SHIBUSD_RTI before 5 PM EDT on July 6, 2026. Each outcome resolves Yes if the average price exceeds a specified threshold. Thresholds range from $0.000000001 (lowest) to $0.000013 (highest), with each increment representing a separate outcome. The official price is determined by CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index, with 60 prices collected at expiration and averaged to produce the final settlement value.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders are willing to stake on specific price outcomes, which often diverges from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets react to immediate supply and demand, this market aggregates forward-looking conviction across many participants over months. Comparing the implied price from market odds to today's SHIB valuation or consensus analyst targets can reveal whether traders expect significant appreciation, depreciation, or stability by the resolution date.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different SHIB price ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract's price directly reflects the probability traders assign to that outcome occurring by the deadline. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, bids and asks adjust, allowing you to enter or exit positions at prices that match current market conviction about the token's July 2026 value.
This market resolves around Jul 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning contracts will be determined by where SHIB actually trades at that specific time, as documented by reliable market data sources. All positions settle according to the verified price, and payouts are distributed to holders of the correct outcome contracts.
Major catalysts for this market include regulatory announcements affecting cryptocurrency broadly, significant developments within the Shiba Inu ecosystem or community, Bitcoin and Ethereum price movements (which often drive altcoin sentiment), macroeconomic shifts, and adoption or partnership news. Market-wide volatility, changes in trader risk appetite, and shifts in technical levels can also swing odds meaningfully. Monitoring crypto news, on-chain metrics, and broader financial conditions will help you anticipate how conviction might shift before the July 2026 settlement date.