TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$129,159,707
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,442,132,418
404,744
Markets across
30,489
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,691
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 1, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether Shiba Inu's price will exceed specific thresholds on July 1, 2026 at 5pm EDT. Resolution uses CF Benchmarks' official Real Time Index with pricing data averaged over 60 seconds immediately before the specified time.
Resolution is determined by the simple average of CF Benchmarks' SHIBUSD_RTI over the 60 seconds immediately preceding 5 PM EDT on July 1, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific price threshold, with resolution occurring only if the averaged price exceeds that threshold. If data is unavailable or incomplete at expiration, affected outcomes resolve to No. The CF Benchmarks Real-Time Index provides continuous pricing aggregated from major cryptocurrency exchanges.
Prediction market odds reflect what traders believe will occur, often diverging from current spot prices or analyst forecasts. While spot markets price SHIB based on immediate supply and demand, this market isolates a single future moment, allowing traders to express conviction about price direction over months. Comparing the implied odds here to consensus analyst targets or historical volatility can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism, caution, or uncertainty relative to mainstream expectations.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share reflects the probability of SHIB reaching or staying within a specified price range by the settlement date. As new trades flow in, the bid-ask spread tightens or widens, and the midpoint price continuously updates to reflect the latest consensus among active participants.
This market resolves around Jul 1, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed against credible public sources documenting SHIB's price at that exact moment. Once the event is verifiable, positions settle automatically and winnings are credited to traders who backed the correct outcome. The resolution process is deterministic and final, with no appeals or adjustments after settlement.
Major catalysts include regulatory announcements affecting crypto broadly, Shiba Inu ecosystem developments (token burns, new partnerships, or protocol upgrades), Bitcoin and Ethereum price swings, and macroeconomic shifts in risk appetite. Social media sentiment spikes, exchange listings or delistings, and whale transactions can also trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor on-chain metrics, developer activity, and broader market cycles to anticipate directional moves before they're reflected in this market's odds.