TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Shein Monthly Credit Card Spend in August
kalshi

What will Shein's credit card spend be in August?

Volume:
$25,995

Above 86

 - Kalshi

Above 86 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 5, 11:02 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 86

View
100%
86%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 104

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,418
N/A
N/A
$1,417
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 92

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,134
N/A
N/A
$1,297
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 88

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,712
N/A
N/A
$1,579
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,309
N/A
N/A
$908
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 94

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,303
N/A
N/A
$1,453
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 98

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,296
N/A
N/A
$753
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 90

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,041
N/A
N/A
$1,337
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 102

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,910
N/A
N/A
$329
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 96

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,620
N/A
N/A
$1,076
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 84

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 85

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks Shein's credit card spending performance for a specific month, comparing it against various financial thresholds. The outcome depends on whether reported spending exceeds predefined levels, reflecting consumer spending trends and financial health during that period.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Shein Monthly Credit Card Spend index for August 2026, with each market having a distinct threshold for resolution. If the reported index value for August 2026 exceeds the specified threshold (ranging from 88 to 104), the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The determining value is the first report released by Carbon Arc, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year changes in U.S. store visits, with 100 representing equal spending to the same month last year. Values above 100 signify growth, while values below 100 indicate a decline. The data is derived from mobile location tracking across over 200 million devices, adjusted for seasonality, weather, and holidays, and updates daily as new information becomes available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Shein August credit card spend market. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different spending outcomes for Shein's credit card users in August. The display includes current top outcome chances and total volume of $25,995, giving you a snapshot of market sentiment and activity for this specific prediction.

Currently, this market’s implied probability reflects trader expectations for Shein's August credit card spend, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts often rely on historical trends, earnings reports, and macroeconomic indicators, while traders incorporate real-time sentiment, news flow, and behavioral signals. Comparing this market’s odds with analyst predictions offers a useful contrast between quantitative models and crowd-sourced expectations, helping to spot potential mispricings or emerging trends.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate wisdom of participants. The market price adjusts dynamically based on new information, trading volume of $25,995, and shifts in sentiment around Shein's credit card performance in August. This mechanism captures real-time expectations without relying on external polling or delayed reports.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released data or reputable news sources covering Shein's August credit card spend figures. Until then, the market remains open for trading, allowing participants to react to any preliminary indicators or rumors that may surface.

Key signals that could shift this market include preliminary sales reports, management commentary from Shein, changes in consumer spending behavior due to economic conditions, and any news around credit card usage incentives or promotions. Major economic announcements, sector-wide trends, or unexpected disruptions could also influence trader sentiment. Monitoring earnings calls, industry press releases, and macro indicators will help anticipate potential moves in the market leading up to Sep 14, 2026.