TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Will Student List - Students Win receive at least 50% of valid votes in Serbia's 2026 parliamentary election?
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Description
These markets ask about the vote share the 'Student List – Students Win' electoral list will achieve in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The markets rely on official results from the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (RIK) to determine the outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi offers multiple binary markets with different thresholds for the Student List's vote share, while Polymarket uses range-based questions and a 'less than' question.Hero tip: Understand the specific threshold or range being tested on each platform. Kalshi's multiple markets create SKU risk; Polymarket's range questions require attention to boundary conditions.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Polymarket asks questions about whether the Student List will win *less than* a certain percentage or fall within a specific range (e.g., 30-35%). Resolution is based on the official RIK results, with a tiebreaker rule resolving to the higher range bracket. If results are not known by March 31, 2027, it resolves to the lowest range bracket. 'Question: Will the Student List win less than 30% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?'
- Kalshi: Kalshi offers a series of binary markets, each resolving 'Yes' if the Student List wins *at least* a specific percentage (30%, 34%, 38%, etc.). Resolution is based on the first non-preliminary nationwide general report from RIK. 'If the Student List - Students Win share of valid votes in RIK’s first non-preliminary nationwide general report covering all polling stations, rounded to two decimal places is at least 30%... then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Student List – Students Win” (Student List) in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Student List – Students Win” (Student List) divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named electoral list. Votes attributed to another list or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the reported value falls exactly on a bracket boundary, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by the Republic Electoral Commission of Serbia (https://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/).
Kalshi
The event determines whether the Student List - Students Win achieves various vote-share thresholds in Serbia's October 25, 2026 parliamentary election. Resolution hinges on the list's percentage of valid votes as reported in RIK’s first non-preliminary nationwide general report covering all polling stations, rounded to two decimal places. Valid votes exclude invalid, spoiled, and rejected ballots. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold (30%, 34%, 38%, 42%, 46%, or 50%), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the reported percentage meets or exceeds that threshold. The report used for resolution is fixed at the time of its release; subsequent revisions, corrections, or updates do not alter the outcome. If no qualifying report is released by the contract’s expiration, the last fair price rule applies.
Frequently asked questions
This market resolves around Jan 25, 2027, with the outcome determined by the officially reported results of the Serbian parliamentary election. The final vote share received by the Student List will be verified against credible public reporting from official election authorities. The platform will then confirm the outcome based on this verified data, ensuring a transparent and accurate resolution process. Traders will be able to see the final result and any associated payouts once the election results are finalized and confirmed.
Several events could significantly impact this market. Major political endorsements, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed by late-stage polling, or significant news coverage regarding the Student List’s campaign could all influence trading activity. Any developments that alter perceptions of the Student List’s chances of success are likely to move the odds. Additionally, broader political events within Serbia or internationally could introduce volatility into this market, prompting traders to reassess their positions.
