TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

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$323,326,361

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2,984,640,614

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$1,969,435,260

419,363

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40,411

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4,612

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5

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September Inflation UK - Annual
polymarket

September Inflation UK - Annual

Volume:
$29,275

3.4-3.6%

 - Polymarket

3.4-3.6% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 21, 2026

Closed: Oct 21, 4:02 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

3.4-3.6%

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10,290
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

3.1-3.3%

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,445
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

3.7-3.9%

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,620
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.8-3%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤2.7%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,575
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

4.0%+

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$704
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Polymarket

This is a market about inflation in the United Kingdom over the 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the UK Office for National Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the UK Consumer Prices Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in September 2026 according to the monthly Office for National Statistics (ONS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the ONS “Consumer Prices Index, UK” report released for September 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices#publications), currently scheduled to be released on October 21, 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: this market will resolve only based on the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) figure. The “Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs” (CPIH) will not qualify. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI UK news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the ONS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the UK inflation market tracks the current odds for various inflation outcomes, providing a real-time view of where traders believe UK annual inflation will land in September. You can also see the price history of the different outcomes, allowing you to analyze how sentiment has shifted over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $2,059, and the total volume traded to date, which is $29,275. This information helps you understand market activity and the level of interest in different potential outcomes.

Currently, analysts’ forecasts for UK inflation in September vary, but generally center around a range of 3.5% to 4.0%. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. If the prediction market consistently deviates from expert opinions, it could indicate traders have access to or are weighting different information. It’s important to remember that both analyst forecasts and this market represent predictions about the future, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate. Comparing the two provides a more comprehensive view of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released for September, measuring the annual inflation rate. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with the predictions made in this market. The data will be sourced from official government statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as employment figures or GDP growth, could shift expectations about future inflation. Changes in global energy prices, particularly oil and gas, are also likely to have an impact, as energy costs are a major component of the CPI. Furthermore, statements from the Bank of England regarding monetary policy, like interest rate adjustments, could influence trader sentiment. Any surprising geopolitical events could also introduce volatility and move this market.