TOTAL VOLUME:

$124b

24H VOL:

$82,345,145

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,121,338,658

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,285,568,173

364,467

Markets across

33,191

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,073

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

41%

VS.

Kalshi:

59%

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September Inflation China - Annual
kalshi
polymarket

What will September inflation be in China?

Total volume:
$21,436
Volume 24h:
$1,139
56%
Liquidity:
$438
0%
Open interest:
$13,255
9%

Above 3.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 3.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 14, 2026

Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in September 2026?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: 0% Illiquid market 34 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
96%
Yes 100¢No 4¢
4¢
N/A
$1,197
0%
0.76%
$1,103
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.1%

Trade
86%
Yes 100¢No 11¢
11¢
N/A
$131
0%
0%
$114
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

0.9% to 1.0%

Trade
80%
Yes 80¢No 89¢
69¢
$63
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.2%

Trade
77%
Yes 100¢No 39¢
39¢
N/A
$309
0%
16%
$228
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.3%

Trade
65%
Yes 88¢No 47¢
35¢
N/A
$602
0%
207%
$458
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.4%

Trade
59%
2%
Yes 99¢No 45¢
44¢
N/A
$1,432
304%
755%
$1,237
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
47%
Yes 99¢No 61¢
60¢
N/A
$128
0%
56%
$57
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.7%

Trade
33%
Yes 74¢No 82¢
56¢
N/A
$1,919
0%
1,180%
$1,644
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.6%

Trade
28%
11%
Yes 76¢No 75¢
51¢
N/A
$426
13%
34%
$220
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.1%

Trade
24%
Yes 48¢No 97¢
45¢
N/A
$233
0%
29%
$107
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.8%

Trade
23%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$1,312
0%
337%
$1,157
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.9%

Trade
16%
Yes 33¢No 98¢
31¢
N/A
$1,423
0%
59%
$1,293
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 3.8%

Trade
15%
2%
Yes 37¢No 99¢
36¢
N/A
$2,742
0.44%
675%
$2,278
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.4%

Trade
14%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$258
0%
4%
$165
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.5%

Trade
13%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$347
0%
7%
$124
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.6%

Trade
11%
Yes 49¢No 100¢
49¢
N/A
$234
0%
14%
$113
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.7%

Trade
10%
Yes 50¢No 100¢
50¢
N/A
$134
0%
3%
$28
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 5.0%

Trade
9%
Yes 30¢No 100¢
30¢
N/A
$136
0%
0%
$93
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
6%
Yes 19¢No 100¢
19¢
N/A
$506
0%
24%
$350
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.2%

Trade
4%
Yes 44¢No 100¢
44¢
N/A
$597
0%
150%
$467
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.9%

Trade
3%
Yes 50¢No 100¢
50¢
N/A
$1,620
0%
445%
$1,390
1mo 4d
active
kalshi

Above 4.3%

Trade
2%
Yes 63¢No 100¢
63¢
N/A
$5,730
0%
11%
$629
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

≤0.4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
41¢
$156
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

0.5% to 0.6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
46¢
$70
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
polymarket

0.7% to 0.8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
67¢
$68
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 4d
active
Total markets: 25 of 26

Description

These markets ask forecasters to predict the annual inflation rate in China as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as of September 2026. The markets cover a range of potential inflation outcomes, from below 0.5% to over 5.0%.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge in their question framing and threshold structure. Polymarket asks about ranges, while Kalshi asks about exceeding specific values.Hero tip: Consider the cumulative probability implied by the Kalshi markets. If you believe inflation will be, for example, 3.5%, you would expect all Kalshi markets above 3.5% to trade lower than those below.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Questions are framed around whether CPI will fall within or above specific ranges. Resolution source is the NBS monthly report, reporting inflation to one decimal place. Example: 'Will China’s CPI increase by ≤0.4% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?'
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve 'Yes' if CPI exceeds a single threshold. Resolution source is the BLS CPI to one decimal place. Example: 'If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.0%...then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending September 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for September 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in October 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for September 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in September 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the year-over-year Consumer Price Index for all items in September 2026, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics to one decimal place. Each outcome resolves to Yes if the CPI increase exceeds its specified threshold. In the event of a federal government shutdown delaying data release, the market's expiration date will be extended to the sooner of the data release or six months after the shutdown ends.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the consensus view on future Chinese inflation, specifically the annual rate of CPI inflation ending in September 2026. Currently, Polymarket shows 80.0% probability for Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?, while Kalshi indicates 96.0% for Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in September 2026?. The total volume across both platforms is $21,436, offering insight into how seriously traders are taking different potential outcomes. This allows for a comprehensive view of expectations surrounding the China inflation market.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on economic models and published reports, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time sentiment and incorporating a wider range of information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Currently, the implied probability in this market may differ from the consensus estimates published by major financial institutions, offering a valuable point of comparison for those following China’s economic outlook. Examining these differences can reveal unique insights.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information sets. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume generally leads to tighter spreads and more efficient price discovery. Additionally, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can influence trading behavior. The differing leading outcomes—Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.9% and 1.0% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026? on Polymarket and Will the rate of CPI inflation be above 3.0% for the year ending in September 2026? on Kalshi—highlight these nuanced differences in market perception.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official annual CPI inflation rate for China as released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, covering the 12-month period ending in September 2026. Traders will be able to see the verified result and the corresponding payout structure following the official data release. The current volume is $1,159.

Several key events could significantly impact this market. Major shifts in Chinese economic policy, such as changes to monetary or fiscal stimulus, would be closely watched. Unexpected fluctuations in global commodity prices, particularly oil and food, could also influence inflation expectations. Geopolitical events impacting China’s trade relationships or supply chains could also create volatility. Furthermore, any surprising data releases regarding Chinese economic growth, employment, or manufacturing activity could prompt traders to reassess their positions and move the price of this market.