TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

Markets across

39,838

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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September Inflation China - Annual
polymarket

September Inflation China - Annual

Volume:
$43,980

0.9% to 1.0%

 - Polymarket

0.9% to 1.0% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 13, 11:32 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

0.9% to 1.0%

View
100%
48%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17,687
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

0.7% to 0.8%

View
0%
14%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,022
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.1%+

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,134
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.5% to 0.6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,695
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

≤0.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,442
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending September 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for September 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in October 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for September 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in September 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Polymarket

This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in China over a 12-month period ending September 2026 as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) of China. This market will resolve according to the number the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by during the 12-month period ending September 2026 (% change from the same month in the previous year) according to the monthly NBS report. The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for September 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently scheduled to be released in October 2026. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for September 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Index in September 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)". Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the China inflation market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for annual inflation in China as of September 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $3,317. The total volume traded on this market is $43,980, indicating the level of interest and speculation surrounding China’s economic performance. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and make informed decisions.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing views on China’s inflation that may differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market allows for a probabilistic assessment of various inflation scenarios. It’s important to note that prediction markets can sometimes incorporate information more quickly than traditional forecasts, reflecting real-time sentiment and new data. Comparing the implied probabilities in this market to the consensus views of economists can offer a valuable perspective on potential economic outcomes.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China for September 2026. The market will determine which outcome—a specific percentage range for annual inflation—most closely matches the reported CPI figure. Traders should monitor economic indicators leading up to the resolution date to assess the potential for different outcomes.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in Chinese monetary policy, such as changes to interest rates or reserve requirements, would likely cause price movements. Major global economic shocks, like a recession in a key trading partner, could also influence inflation expectations. Furthermore, geopolitical events or significant changes in commodity prices (especially oil) could affect the cost of goods and services in China, thereby impacting the probabilities reflected in this market. Monitoring these factors is crucial for understanding potential shifts in the China inflation market.