TOTAL VOLUME:
$115.9b
24H VOL:
$78,242,292
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,351,118,393
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,123,310,921
314,014
Markets across
30,653
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
3,372
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
42%
VS.
Kalshi:
58%
Moonshot
- Polymarket
Moonshot - Polymarket
43%
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Aug 17
Aug 18
Aug 20
Aug 21
Aug 22
Aug 23
Aug 24
Vol.
$3k
·
Resolves Oct 31, 2026
$
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard when the table under "Code Arena | WebDev" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s odds often reflect a more nuanced or contrarian view. While analysts may highlight overall leader performance, traders on Polymarket are pricing in a wider range of outcomes, including the potential for unexpected shifts in the second position. The current top outcome holds a 41.0% chance, which may diverge from or align with expert predictions depending on recent lab updates and public sentiment.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent the possible rankings. The current odds reflect the collective belief about which lab is most likely to finish second, with the top outcome priced at 41.0%. Volume of $10,785 shows the level of interest and liquidity, while price movements react to new information about lab performance, student progress, or public announcements.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final October rankings are verifiable from credible public reporting. The second-best lab will be determined by official Code Arena results or authoritative news sources that confirm the end-of-month standings. Until then, traders will adjust positions based on any emerging data or announcements.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key events include official progress reports from the Code Arena WebDev AI Lab, student project demos, or any announcements about lab rankings or changes in participation. Media coverage highlighting a specific lab’s performance, or unexpected drops in activity for a leading contender, may also cause price swings. Traders will watch for any data that suggests a change in the second position as October approaches.