TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?
polymarket

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 7:55 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$73,025
Volume 24h:
$7,861
60%
Liquidity:
$7,699
50%
Open interest:
$7,547N/A

Moonshot

 - Polymarket

Moonshot - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 07d:09h:55m

Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of October 2026?

29%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 33.1¢ buys you 302 shares | Odds: 29% Total Payout: $302 | Net Profit: $202 Multiplier: 3.02x | ROI: 202% APY not meaningful Low liquidity 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
29%
5%
Yes 33.1¢No 76¢
9.1¢
$716
$23,348
6%
23%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
27%
20%
Yes 36.6¢No 84.4¢
21¢
$624
$7,627
24%
54%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
23%
29%
Yes 29¢No 84¢
13¢
$619
$16,383
15%
35%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
6%
4%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
$676
$9,014
8%
24%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
5%
2%
Yes 7.2¢No 98¢
5.2¢
$471
$1,940
24%
85%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
4%
Yes 5.3¢No 97¢
2.3¢
$899
$2,185
18%
93%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 4.4¢No 97.9¢
2.3¢
$613
$2,349
31%
90%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
3%
Yes 3.4¢No 97¢
0.4¢
$754
$3,439
11%
113%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 3.8¢No 98¢
1.8¢
$597
$2,970
14%
44%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,026
$2,488
14%
43%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$703
$1,282
0%
30%
N/A
1w 9h
active
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked primarily Chinese company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Chinese AI ranking market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the top outcome, along with 24-hour volume of $6,970. This view shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning around the likelihood of different companies being ranked second among Chinese AI firms by the end of October.

Currently, this market implies a chance of 28.5% for the leading outcome, which often diverges from traditional analyst rankings. Analysts may favor different firms based on recent product launches or funding rounds, while traders price in a broader set of signals — including market sentiment and speculative trends — that aren't captured in typical research reports.

On Polymarket, this market uses a decentralized betting pool where traders buy and sell contracts representing possible outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects the ratio of yes to no shares, influenced by recent trading activity and liquidity. As new information emerges about the Chinese AI ranking market, traders adjust their positions, shifting the implied odds. The market price also responds to overall volume and participation levels, with higher trading volumes typically leading to more stable and precise probability estimates.

This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be determined by analyzing authoritative industry rankings, financial disclosures, and news sources that establish the second-best Chinese AI company as of the specified date. No single entity controls the verification process; instead, the market outcome aligns with widely accepted public data to ensure transparency and fairness for all participants.

Several signals could shift this market before it resolves, including major product launches, funding announcements, or leadership changes at leading Chinese AI firms. Analyst reports, industry conferences, and government policy updates may also influence trader sentiment. Significant earnings surprises or partnership news involving top competitors can cause rapid re-evaluations of relative strengths. As the Oct 31, 2026 deadline approaches, any credible data pointing to a shift in market share or competitive positioning will likely drive price movements.