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Closed: Dec 30, 7:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether the Supreme Court will rule that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act preempts state-level failure-to-warn claims in the case Monsanto Co. v. Durnell. On Polymarket, the probability of a ruling in favor of Monsanto stands at 96.0%. Resolution will be determined by official information from the U.S. Supreme Court or credible reporting consensus. Watch for the Supreme Court's merits decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, which must be issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET to trigger a Yes resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court, in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell, rules that the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) preempts state failure-to-warn claims by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Supreme Court will be considered to rule that FIFRA preempts such claims if it issues a decision in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell holding that FIFRA preempts state failure-to-warn claims, including ruling that manufacturers cannot be held liable under state law for failing to include warnings not required or approved by the Environmental Protection Agency. If the Supreme Court ruling in Monsanto Co. v. Durnell affirms that state-law failure-to-warn claims are not preempted, allows such claims to proceed, or otherwise declines to find federal preemption, the market will resolve to “No”. If the case is dismissed, settled, or otherwise disposed of without a merits decision within this market’s timeframe, the market will resolve to “No”. If no Supreme Court ruling on the merits of Monsanto Co. v. Durnell is issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The market is scheduled to resolve on Dec 31, 2026. Resolution occurs when the Supreme Court issues its final ruling in the relevant case. The outcome is determined by whether the Court's decision favors Monsanto's legal position or not. Traders should monitor the Supreme Court's docket and opinion release schedule to anticipate resolution timing. Once the ruling is published and verified, the market settles according to the outcome, and winning positions are paid out based on the binary result.
Key catalysts include oral arguments before the Supreme Court, which often signal judicial leanings through questioning patterns. Publication of amicus curiae briefs from industry groups, environmental organizations, or government agencies can shift market expectations. Interim rulings from lower courts or related Supreme Court decisions on similar issues may influence traders' assessments. Media coverage of the case, statements from legal experts, and changes in the Court's composition could also impact pricing. Any procedural developments—such as case consolidation, remand, or settlement discussions—would likely trigger significant price movement as traders reassess the probability of a Monsanto victory.