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501,518

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SC-01 House Election Winner
polymarket
kalshi

Who will win the SC-01 House election?

Total volume:
$302,000
Volume 24h:
$4,388
76%
Liquidity:
$161,228
34%
Open interest:
$167,245
0.57%

Republican party

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 4, 2027

Will Republican win the House race for SC-01?

67%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 67% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% High Projected APY: 570% 73 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Republican party

Trade
67%
Yes 68¢No 33¢
1¢
N/A
$55,889
1%
15%
$44,293
2mo 1w 6d
active
polymarket

Republican Party

Trade
66%
2%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
2¢
$73,206
$36,348
2%
32%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
66.6%
Yes 67.5¢No 34¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
polymarket

Democratic Party

Trade
35%
Yes 36¢No 66¢
2¢
$88,023
$65,380
2%
17%
N/A
1w 5d 10h
active
kalshi

Democratic party

Trade
33%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$144,382
1%
7%
$122,953
2mo 1w 6d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
33.6%
Yes 34¢No 67.5¢
Avg: 1.5¢Max: 2¢
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for South Carolina’s 1st congressional district, specifically asking which party will win the seat. Currently, the consensus probability of a Republican victory is 73.0%, while the Democratic Party is at 29.5%. This aggregated view combines data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official results reported by the United States Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/). Keep an eye on the primary election results scheduled for June 14, 2026, as they will significantly shape the race for this seat.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate in the SC-01 House election, with the FEC serving as a tiebreaker.Primary resolution logic: United States Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 House seat in the 2026 midterm elections.
  • If a candidate lacks a clear party affiliation, they are assigned based on their stated intent to caucus.
  • The FEC official results are the ultimate source of truth in case of ambiguity.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, the FEC will determine the winner, and the market will resolve accordingly.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws after markets are live, the market will resolve based on the remaining candidates.
  • Disputed Results: If the election results are disputed, the FEC's official certification will be used for resolution.
Timing: Resolution will occur after the official results of the 2026 SC-01 House election are certified by the FEC, expected in late 2026/early 2027.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SC-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the House member sworn in for SC-01 for the term beginning in 2027. Resolution occurs when the elected representative takes office, with potential for accelerated determination following a consensus projection by major media organizations.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likelihood of different outcomes in the SC-01 House election. Currently, the aggregated volume across both platforms is $302,000, with $3,588 traded in the last 24 hours, indicating significant interest in this race. This provides a consensus view derived from the predictions of many individual traders. The current market suggests Will Republican win the House race for SC-01? is favored, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. This allows for a dynamic assessment of probabilities as new information emerges, offering a unique perspective beyond traditional polling data.

Prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current voter sentiment, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate performance, and even subtle shifts in the political landscape. Polling averages can be susceptible to biases and inaccuracies, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to make well-informed, rational predictions. The difference between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates a different result than currently suggested by polls.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi may differ due to variations in trader composition, liquidity, and market-specific rules. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with potentially varying expertise and risk tolerance. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform can influence price discovery; lower volume can lead to greater price volatility. Currently, Polymarket favors Will the Republican Party win the SC-01 House seat? at 66.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Republican win the House race for SC-01? at 67.0%, demonstrating these differing viewpoints. These discrepancies create opportunities for arbitrage among traders.

This market resolves around Jan 4, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the winner of the SC-01 House election is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant election authorities. The market will reflect the candidate who receives the most votes and is declared the winner of the election. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements regarding the election results to understand when the outcome will be finalized and this market settled.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, debate performances, and unexpected news events related to the candidates could all shift trader sentiment. Changes in national political trends or economic indicators could also influence the perceived likelihood of different outcomes. Furthermore, any polling data releases, especially those showing a substantial shift in voter preferences, would likely cause price movement. Unexpected candidate withdrawals or controversies could also dramatically alter the odds in this market.