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Saxony-Anhalt state election: SPD vote percent
kalshi

What will be the SPD's vote percent in Saxony-Anhalt?

Volume:
$1,698

At least 7%

 - Kalshi

At least 7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 11:44 AM EST

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 7%

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$569
N/A
N/A
$556
2w 1d 16h
Yes
kalshi

At least 6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$304
N/A
N/A
$304
2w 1d 16h
Yes
kalshi

At least 8%

View
100%
20%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
$227
2w 1d 16h
Yes
kalshi

At least 12%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
$333
2w 1d 16h
No
kalshi

At least 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$244
N/A
N/A
$210
2w 1d 16h
No
kalshi

At least 3%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 16h
Yes
kalshi

At least 4%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 16h
Yes
kalshi

At least 5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2w 1d 16h
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the Social Democratic Party's performance in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, focusing specifically on the proportion of votes they secure through the party list voting system. The outcome hinges on whether their certified vote share meets or exceeds various thresholds, reflecting their electoral strength in that region.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the Social Democratic Party (SPD) achieves specific vote percentage thresholds in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election. Each market corresponds to a different minimum threshold, ranging from 3% to 12%, and resolves to 'Yes' if the certified percentage of the SPD's share of the Landesstimme—the party list vote—is equal to or greater than the respective threshold. The percentage is calculated by dividing the number of valid votes received by the SPD by the total number of valid Landesstimmen cast, multiplying by 100, and rounding to two decimal places. Only certified official results are used for resolution, with invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots excluded from both the numerator and denominator. If a recount occurs before the market expiration, the most recent certified percentage is applied. Should the election be cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets automatically resolve to 'No'.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Saxony-Anhalt SPD vote market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for this prediction, along with current 24-hour volume of $0. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of various vote share outcomes, giving you a live view of market sentiment and activity for the Saxony-Anhalt SPD vote market.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market’s current odds reflect a collective trader assessment of the SPD’s expected vote share. While analysts may provide detailed polling interpretations and scenario breakdowns, the market price condenses all available information — including recent polls, campaign developments, and economic factors — into a single, continuously updated probability.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote percentage reported by authoritative news outlets and electoral commissions will determine which market contract ends up in the money.