TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
At least 6%
- Kalshi
At least 6% - Kalshi
1W
News
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Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolved Sep 22, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Sep 22, 11:43 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the Greens party's performance in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election, focusing specifically on their share of the party list vote. The outcome depends on whether their certified vote percentage meets or exceeds various thresholds, reflecting their electoral strength in that region.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the certified percentage of the party list vote (Landesstimme) received by Alliance 90/The Greens in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The percentage is calculated from valid votes cast for the party list, excluding invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots, and rounded to two decimal places. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 2% to 9%), and resolves to Yes if the certified percentage meets or exceeds that threshold. If a recount occurs before the market expiration, the most recent certified percentage applies. Should the election be cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve to No.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects trader expectations for the Greens' vote share, which can diverge from traditional poll-based analyst forecasts. Traders may price in factors such as recent campaign performance, economic conditions, or shifting voter sentiment not yet captured in public polls. Comparing this market to analyst predictions helps identify potential over- or undervaluation based on real-time betting activity.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders submit bids and asks to set the odds. The current implied probability reflects the collective assessment of all participants, adjusting dynamically with new information and trading volume. Traders can also influence pricing through liquidity provision and large orders.
This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The final vote share reported by authoritative news outlets and electoral commissions will determine the payout, aligning market results with the actual election outcome.
Key events such as televised debates, major policy announcements, or shifts in voter sentiment tracked by opinion polls could move this market. Economic data releases, leadership scandals, or coalition negotiations may also influence trader expectations. Any development that changes perceptions of the Greens' electoral prospects can cause rapid price adjustments.
