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Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?
polymarket

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: AfD # of seats?

Volume:
$423,039

38-41

 - Polymarket

38-41 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 8:18 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

38-41

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$94,492
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

34-37

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$97,135
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

42-45

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90,477
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

46-49

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,249
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$53,994
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<34

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30,692
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the number of seats the AfD party will win in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections. Currently, Polymarket gives a 99.7% probability to the AfD winning 38-41 seats, with a 0.1% probability assigned to them winning 34-37 seats. The market will resolve based on official election results published on the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt website (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/). Keep a close watch on the election itself, scheduled for September 6, 2026, as this date marks the end of the voting window and will determine the final seat count for the AfD.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt as a result of this election. If the AfD party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the AfD party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the AfD party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the AfD seat count market, alongside 24-hour volume of $185,216. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of various seat outcomes based on current information and expectations for the Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections. The display updates continuously to reflect market activity and shifts in sentiment leading up to the election results.

This market often diverges from traditional polling averages due to trader behavior and market dynamics. While polls provide snapshots of voter intent, traders may price in factors like strategic voting, turnout trends, or recent campaign developments. As a result, this market can show higher or lower implied probabilities for the AfD than the most recent polls. Monitoring shifts in either space helps identify potential mispricing or emerging trends ahead of the election.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official election results are verified against credible public sources. The exact seat count for the AfD will be the final determinant, based on authoritative reports from the election authority and major news outlets. Traders should watch for official announcements after voting concludes to see the market settle.