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Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: Margin of Victory
polymarket

What will the margin of victory be?

Volume:
$79,343

AfD 25%+

 - Polymarket

AfD 25%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 1:13 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

AfD 25%+

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$55,045
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

AfD <10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,494
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AfD 10-15%

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,723
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AfD 15-20%

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

AfD 20-25%

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$939
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of valid second votes in this election. If the margin of victory falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes received by the political party that wins the most valid second votes and the political party that wins the second-most valid second votes. Percentages of the valid second votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid second votes cast in the election. If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes in this election, and the tie is between two parties listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the list whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed party and an unlisted party, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed party. If the tie is between two or more unlisted parties, this market will resolve to “Other.” If any unlisted party wins the most valid second votes in this election, or the results of this election are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Sachsen-Anhalt election outcome tracks the implied probability of different margin of victory ranges. You’ll find the current odds, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,966. Total volume for this market is $79,343. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available. The dashboard provides a real-time view of where the crowd believes the election will land.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand; if many traders believe an outcome is likely, they will bid up the price of contracts representing that outcome, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the actual margin of victory between the leading parties in the election, as reported by official election authorities. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final results. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Sep 6, 2026. Major developments in the campaign, such as unexpected endorsements, gaffes by candidates, or shifts in party platforms, could all influence trader sentiment. Economic news releases, particularly those related to the Sachsen-Anhalt region, could also play a role. Finally, any significant polling data released in the lead-up to the election will likely cause price adjustments as traders reassess the probabilities of different outcomes. Unexpected events, such as a major scandal, could also have a substantial impact.