Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:23:11.000Z
End: 2026-09-06T23:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if CDU wins at least 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if CDU wins less than 23% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard tracks real-time odds and price history for the CDU vote share market, along with 24-hour volume of $20,171. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the likelihood of the CDU securing over or under 23% of the vote in the upcoming election.

On Polymarket, this market reflects trader expectations for the CDU vote share. While polls provide aggregated voter intent, the market incorporates additional variables such as recent events and sentiment shifts. Currently, the pricing shows a different outlook than typical polling averages, suggesting traders may anticipate volatility or late-deciding voters. This divergence can arise when market participants weigh factors beyond standard survey data, like campaign momentum or economic indicators, which might not yet be fully captured in public polls.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote share reported by official and widely trusted sources will determine whether the CDU exceeds or falls short of the 23% threshold.

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: CDU Over/Under 23%?

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