Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: BSW Over/Under 5%?
Start: 2026-08-20T18:26:58.000Z
End: 2026-09-06T23:59:00.000Z

Description

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to “Over” if BSW wins at least 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve to “Under” if BSW wins less than 5% of all valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the BSW 5% vote share market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $5,172. This visualization shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the possibility that BSW will secure more or less than 5% of the vote in the Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity as the election approaches.

On Polymarket, the current pricing of the BSW 5% vote share market reflects trader expectations shaped by recent polling trends and political dynamics. While polls provide a snapshot of voter intentions, prediction markets incorporate additional variables such as campaign momentum, economic indicators, and potential swing voters. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities, where market odds may appear more or less optimistic about BSW crossing the 5% threshold compared to traditional surveys. The gap often narrows as Sep 6, 2026 approaches, but for now, this market offers a distinct perspective on voter sentiment.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, this market is priced through a decentralized pool where traders buy and sell contracts representing the over or under outcome. The current implied probability reflects the ratio of contracts for each outcome, adjusted for liquidity and open interest. Traders’ expectations, recent news, and polling trends all feed into price discovery on Polymarket, creating a dynamic indicator of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. Official vote tallies will determine whether BSW achieves more or less than 5% of the total valid votes cast in the Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election, settling all contracts accordingly.

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