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Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?
polymarket

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: AfD Vote Share?

Volume:
$374,554

42-45%

 - Polymarket

42-45% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 7, 2026

Closed: Sep 7, 12:09 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

42-45%

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$123,466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<39%

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$116,607
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45%+

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39-42%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$56,041
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks the likely vote share the AfD party will achieve in the Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary election, specifically whether they will win between 42% and 45% of all valid second votes. Currently, Polymarket gives this outcome a 99.8% probability, while the chance of AfD winning between 39% and 42% is 0.2%. Resolution will be based on the official results published on the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt website (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/), as determined by a consensus of credible reporting. Keep a close watch on the election results as they are reported on September 6, 2026, as this date marks the end of the voting period and will determine the final outcome of this market.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by AfD in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the State Returning Officer of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landeswahlleiter Sachsen-Anhalt) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for the AfD vote share market, alongside 24-hour volume of $158,826. It visualizes how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of different vote percentages for the party in the upcoming election, reflecting aggregated trader sentiment and betting activity as the event approaches.

Currently, this market reflects a different outlook than traditional polling averages. While polls may show varying levels of support for the AfD, traders on Polymarket are pricing in their own expectations based on recent trends, campaign developments, and perceived voter sentiment. The gap between these two can highlight areas where market participants diverge from public opinion surveys.

This market resolves around Sep 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially reported and verified against credible public sources. The final vote share will determine which contracts are settled, based on the official tallies from the Saxony-Anhalt parliamentary election.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 6, 2026. Key catalysts include regional polling updates, major public statements from party leaders, national political developments affecting voter sentiment, and media coverage of controversial issues. As the election date nears, any significant changes in voter preferences or campaign dynamics may cause traders to adjust their positions, impacting the market’s odds.