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Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
polymarket

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

May 12, 2026, 11:30 PM EST - Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$9,721,919
Volume 24h:
$86,314
74%
Liquidity:
$1,217,841
3%
Open interest:
$1,021,511N/A

December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 30, 2027

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027?

71%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 71¢ buys you 141 shares | Odds: 71% Total Payout: $141 | Net Profit: $41 Multiplier: 1.41x | ROI: 41% | APY: 33% 432 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
71%
1%
Yes 71¢No 30¢
1¢
$130,888
$52,494
0.62%
8%
N/A
1y 2mo 1w
active
polymarket

November 30, 2027

Trade
69%
Yes 69¢No 32¢
1¢
$76,756
$7,726
3%
59%
N/A
1y 1mo
active
polymarket

October 31, 2027

Trade
66%
Yes 67¢No 35¢
2¢
$83,725
$71,253
0.03%
3%
N/A
1y
active
polymarket

September 30, 2027

Trade
64%
1%
Yes 65¢No 37¢
2¢
$69,986
$4,168
18%
96%
N/A
11mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

August 31, 2027

Trade
61%
1%
Yes 62¢No 40¢
2¢
$69,671
$7,838
18%
338%
N/A
10mo 1w 3d
active
polymarket

July 31, 2027

Trade
57%
Yes 58¢No 43¢
1¢
$63,185
$4,726
0.22%
26%
N/A
9mo 1w 2d
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
55%
1%
Yes 56¢No 46¢
2¢
$84,719
$175,426
0.13%
6%
N/A
8mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

May 31, 2027

Trade
50%
1%
Yes 51¢No 51¢
2¢
$80,861
$116,414
0.47%
515%
N/A
7mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

April 30, 2027

Trade
43%
Yes 43¢No 58¢
1¢
$42,627
$14,977
0.42%
184%
N/A
6mo 1w
active
polymarket

March 31, 2027

Trade
36%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$77,285
$236,982
0.49%
23%
N/A
5mo 1w
active
polymarket

February 28, 2027

Trade
31%
1%
Yes 31¢No 70¢
1¢
$47,269
$39,191
0.27%
31%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

January 31, 2027

Trade
25%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
$74,743
$135,722
0.24%
34%
N/A
3mo 1w 1d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
17%
Yes 17¢No 84¢
1¢
$105,577
$3,045,246
1%
6%
N/A
2mo 1w
active
polymarket

November 30

Trade
9%
3%
Yes 9¢No 92¢
1¢
$48,671
$91,969
6%
64%
N/A
1mo 6d
active
polymarket

October 31

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.4¢No 97.7¢
0.1¢
$161,877
$2,594,281
1%
24%
N/A
6d 21h
active
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,720,097
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$817,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

August 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$586,176
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market tracks the probability of a ceasefire agreement being reached between Russia and Ukraine. The dashboard displays the current odds, represented as a percentage chance, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $79,828, and the total volume traded to date, which is $9,721,919. This provides a clear overview of how traders are assessing the likelihood of a ceasefire and how activity is evolving.

Currently, prediction market participants are indicating a different level of expectation than traditional polls regarding the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire. While public opinion polls often reflect sentiment and stated beliefs, this market represents what people are willing to put their money on. This difference can arise from various factors, including access to different information or varying levels of expertise. It’s important to remember that polls capture stated opinions, whereas this market reflects incentivized predictions.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire deal will occur by the specified date. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability, as reflected by the share price, is 70.5%. Higher demand for shares increases the price and the implied probability, while increased selling pressure does the opposite.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on whether a publicly announced and verifiable ceasefire agreement has been reached between Russia and Ukraine by that date. The agreement must be documented by reputable news sources and international organizations to be considered valid for the purpose of this market. Any disputes regarding the validity of the ceasefire will be evaluated based on widely accepted definitions and evidence.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major developments in the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, such as breakthroughs or breakdowns in talks, would likely cause substantial shifts in the odds. Significant military actions on either side, or changes in international involvement, could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected political developments within Russia or Ukraine, or statements from key international leaders, could also move this market. Any credible reports suggesting a potential ceasefire agreement, even if preliminary, would likely lead to increased buying pressure.