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December 31
- Polymarket
December 31 - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Health
Will the WHO declare a PHEIC for Russia pneumonic plague by December 31?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization officially declares a Public Health Emergency of International Concern covering plague, Yersinia pestis, pneumonic plague, or any plague outbreak between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only a determination that constitutes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern under the International Health Regulations will qualify. Other designations will not be considered, including the convening of an Emergency Committee, a Disease Outbreak News publication, a grade assigned under the WHO Emergency Response Framework, and a characterization of the outbreak as a pandemic. A Public Health Emergency of International Concern already in effect at market creation does not qualify; the declaration must occur between market creation and the specified date. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the Russia pneumonic plague outbreak. While analysts may provide qualitative assessments and scenario planning, this market aggregates the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. This allows for a quantifiable probability assessment of different outcomes. Discrepancies between the market's implied probabilities and expert opinions can highlight areas of disagreement or differing information access, offering a more nuanced understanding of the potential trajectory of the outbreak.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of the event occurring. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news reports, expert opinions, and evolving public health data related to the Russia pneumonic plague outbreak. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the most up-to-date collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on official declarations and reports from recognized public health organizations regarding the status of the pneumonic plague outbreak in Russia and the associated public health emergency. The specific details of the declaration, including the scope and duration, will be the basis for determining the market’s outcome, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official updates from the Russian government or international health organizations like the WHO regarding the outbreak’s severity, spread, or containment efforts would be key catalysts. New case numbers, mortality rates, and the effectiveness of implemented public health measures will also drive price movements. Furthermore, reports of vaccine development or deployment, or the identification of new strains of the plague, could substantially shift trader sentiment and alter the probabilities reflected in this market.
