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Russia Parliamentary Election: 4th Place
polymarket

Which party will finish 4th in Russia’s election?

Volume:
$31,069

New People (NL)

 - Polymarket

New People (NL) - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 25, 2026

Closed: Sep 25, 6:50 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

New People (NL)

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,399
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,528
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,467
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,904
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Rodina

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Civic Platform (GP)

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

United Russia (ER)

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,106
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Yabloko

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party B

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party C

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party D

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party E

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party F

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party G

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party H

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party I

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party J

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party K

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party L

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party N

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party O

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party P

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Party Q

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 34

Description

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Polymarket

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the fourth greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Russian parliamentary election outcome tracks the implied probability of different parties achieving fourth place in the election. You’ll find a dynamic price representing the cost to purchase shares representing a 'yes' outcome, along with a history of price movements. The dashboard also displays the current 24-hour trading volume, providing insight into recent market activity. Currently, the total volume for this market is $31,069, with $5 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows users to quickly gauge market sentiment regarding the potential results.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data for the Russian parliamentary election outcome. While polls attempt to capture voter intent at a specific point in time, this market reflects a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, potential biases in polling, and the ability of market participants to incorporate new information quickly. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming an opinion on the likely outcome.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether a party will achieve fourth place in the Russian parliamentary election. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market provides a real-time assessment of expectations, influenced by a wide range of factors and perspectives.

This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the relevant electoral authorities for the Russian parliamentary election. The market will determine whether a party achieves fourth place based on the official vote count. Traders should monitor news sources and official announcements as the election results are finalized to understand how this market will be settled.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major developments in the political landscape, such as significant endorsements, scandals involving key parties, or unexpected shifts in public opinion, could all influence trading activity. Changes in economic conditions or geopolitical events impacting Russia could also play a role. Furthermore, any credible information regarding potential election interference or irregularities could lead to substantial price fluctuations in this market. Monitoring news and analysis related to the Russian parliamentary election is crucial for understanding potential market movements.