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406,065
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Closed: Sep 25, 6:45 AM EST
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election. If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation. Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a different perspective than traditional polling averages regarding the Russian parliamentary election outcome. While polls may indicate broad support for certain parties, this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who are actively putting capital at risk. It’s common to see discrepancies between polls and prediction markets, as markets incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and potential biases in polling data. It is important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations and are not foolproof predictors of the final result.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results released by the Russian Central Election Commission, detailing the number of seats won by each party in the parliamentary election. The party that officially secures the third-highest number of seats will determine the winning outcome for this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results as they become available to understand how this market will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before its resolution. Major shifts in public opinion, as indicated by late-stage polling data, could influence trader sentiment. Unexpected endorsements or scandals involving key political figures could also trigger price fluctuations. Furthermore, any changes to the electoral process or reports of irregularities could introduce uncertainty and volatility. Geopolitical events or international pressure related to the election could also play a role in shaping market expectations, potentially leading to substantial changes in the odds for the Russian parliamentary election outcome.