TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 24, 1:10 PM EST
Polymarket
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that receives the second greatest number of votes on the federal party-list ballot in the federal city of Saint Petersburg in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received on the federal party-list ballot within the federal city of Saint Petersburg. If two or more parties are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, votes officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that receives the second greatest number of votes on the federal party-list ballot in the federal city of Saint Petersburg in the 2026 Russian State Duma election. The named parties will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received on the federal party-list ballot within the federal city of Saint Petersburg. If two or more parties are tied on votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking. Votes will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Votes attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, votes officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data for this election. While polls attempt to capture a snapshot of voter intent at a specific moment, this market represents a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases inherent in polling, and the market’s ability to incorporate a wider range of information, including qualitative factors and real-time developments. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall view of the likely outcome.
This market resolves around Sep 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final official results from the Saint Petersburg legislative assembly elections will be used to determine which party secured the second-highest number of votes on the party-list portion of the election. The resolution will be based on the official vote count released by the relevant electoral authorities, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Major developments in the political landscape, such as endorsements, scandals involving key candidates, or shifts in public opinion as reflected in new polling data, could all cause price movements. Unexpected economic news or geopolitical events could also influence traders’ perceptions of the election’s likely outcome. Any information that alters the perceived probability of a party finishing in second place has the potential to shift the odds in this market.