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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26?
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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26?

Volume:
$5,169

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26?

 - Polymarket

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jun 26, 2026

Closed: Jun 26, 4:00 PM EST

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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on June 26?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
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$5,169
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Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, June 26, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, June 26, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, June 26, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Friday, June 26, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Russell 2000 daily movement market tracks real-time odds on whether the RUT index will close higher or lower on June 26. The dashboard displays live pricing, historical price movements, and trading activity for this market. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, and the current market price reflects the collective probability estimate. You can monitor how sentiment shifts throughout the day as new economic data, earnings reports, or broader market moves influence expectations for small-cap performance.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than point estimates. While equity strategists may issue directional calls on the Russell 2000, this market prices in live trader conviction and risk appetite. Analyst consensus tends to lag market repricing, especially around intraday moves. Comparing this market's odds to published forecasts can reveal whether professional opinion aligns with crowd expectations or if traders are pricing in tail risks that surveys miss.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that balances buy and sell orders for each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the implied probability; a share trading at 0.65 suggests a 65% chance of that outcome occurring. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices adjust to new information. As the June 26 close approaches, prices typically tighten and become more responsive to intraday market moves and economic releases.

This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the Russell 2000's closing price for that day is finalized. The outcome is determined by whether the RUT index closes above or below its opening level on June 26. Resolution is verified against credible public sources reporting the official close. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome receive their payout once the result is confirmed and the market settles.

Economic data releases—especially employment reports, inflation figures, and Fed commentary—can significantly shift small-cap sentiment and move this market. Earnings surprises from major RUT constituents, geopolitical developments, and shifts in interest-rate expectations also drive price swings. Broader equity market volatility, sector rotations between growth and value, and changes in retail investor positioning influence the Russell 2000 more than large-cap indices. Monitoring macroeconomic calendars and earnings schedules helps traders anticipate potential catalysts before June 26.