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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 9?
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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 9?

Volume:
$749

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 9?

 - Polymarket

Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 9? - Polymarket

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Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 4:00 PM EST

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Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on July 9?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
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$749
N/A
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N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Thursday, July 9, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the Russell 2000 daily movement market dashboard tracks real-time odds for whether the RUT index will close higher or lower on July 9. The interface displays current bid-ask spreads, historical price charts, and trading activity to help participants monitor sentiment shifts. This market reflects live trader positioning on a single day's directional move of the small-cap benchmark, making it a focused instrument for those betting on near-term equity market momentum rather than longer-term index performance.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets rather than survey opinions. While equity analysts typically issue longer-term price targets and earnings estimates, this market distills trader conviction into a binary outcome over a single trading session. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus economist views on market direction can reveal whether professional traders are pricing in different near-term catalysts or volatility expectations than the broader research community.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker mechanism, with each outcome (Up or Down) represented as a separate contract. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the cumulative bets of all participants, with the probability of each outcome displayed as a percentage. Liquidity and trading volume determine how easily participants can enter or exit positions, and prices update continuously as new trades occur throughout the day leading up to market resolution.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once the trading day concludes and the Russell 2000's closing price is verified. The outcome is determined by whether the RUT index finishes above or below its previous close, with the result confirmed against credible public financial data sources. Participants who correctly predicted the direction receive their winnings, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake.

Intraday market catalysts—such as Federal Reserve communications, economic data releases, earnings surprises, or geopolitical developments—can shift trader sentiment and move odds significantly. Small-cap stocks are often more sensitive to interest rate expectations and risk appetite, so any shift in bond yields or equity volatility can ripple through this market. Late-session momentum, options expiration activity, or sector-specific news affecting the constituents of the Russell 2000 may also drive last-minute repricing as traders adjust positions ahead of the close.