Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 24? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on August 24?
Start: 2026-08-21T12:01:02.000Z
End: 2026-08-24T20:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is higher than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for Russell 2000 (RUT) on Monday, August 24, 2026 is lower than the official Russell 2000 Index closing price for RUT on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding. If RUT does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Russell 2000 Index for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market is the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices". US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Russell 2000 direction market on Polymarket tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $3,754. It shows how traders are positioning around the prospects of the Russell 2000 index moving higher or lower by Aug 24, 2026. This single-venue view updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and liquidity for this specific contract.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, sentiment-driven outlook. Where analysts may issue longer-term targets or qualitative assessments, traders in this market price in short-term expectations based on current economic data, Fed policy signals, and market momentum. The resulting odds can diverge noticeably from consensus analyst opinion, especially ahead of major economic releases.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will depend on the official close of the Russell 2000 index on that day, compared against the market’s defined threshold for ‘up’ or ‘down’.

Key signals include major U.S. economic data releases such as CPI, nonfarm payrolls, and Fed statements, all of which influence broader market sentiment. Additional movers could be geopolitical developments, sector-specific news affecting mid-cap stocks, or unexpected policy shifts. Any event that changes expectations for economic growth or interest rates is likely to shift this market’s odds in the final days before Aug 24, 2026.

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