TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 9, 4:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on June 9, 2026 is higher than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on June 9, 2026 is lower than the Close price for Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) on the most recent prior trading day. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless that Friday were a market holiday, in which case it would refer to Thursday, or the next most recent trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) does not trade at all during the regular session, the market will resolve 50-50. For a standard full trading session, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle corresponding to the final minute of regular trading hours on the primary exchange. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth Close value for the 1-minute candle corresponding to the end of regular trading hours on the primary exchange, the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange as the effective closing price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the official closing price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine the closing price for that day. Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed security during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candle available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.HOOD%2FUSD?t=1773432000).
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on HOOD's direction, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on fundamental research and price targets from equity research teams. Markets often price in faster-moving sentiment and tail-risk scenarios that analysts may lag on. Comparing Polymarket's implied probability to consensus analyst sentiment can reveal whether the crowd expects HOOD to outperform or underperform expectations by June 9. Divergences may signal either market overreaction or analyst complacency regarding upcoming catalysts like earnings, regulatory developments, or shifts in retail trading volumes.
On Polymarket, the HOOD Up or Down on June 9 event is priced as a binary contract where traders buy or sell shares representing an up move or down move outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contract price directly reflects the market's implied probability: a price of 0.65 means the market assigns roughly 65% odds to an up move and 35% to a down move. Liquidity, order flow, and the size of recent trades influence how quickly prices adjust. As June 9 approaches, prices typically tighten around the true probability unless new information reshapes expectations about HOOD's stock performance on that specific date.
The market resolves on Jun 9, 2026, after HOOD's closing price on June 9 is finalized. Resolution hinges on whether HOOD closes higher or lower than its opening price on that date. Once the market closes and official price data is confirmed, the winning outcome is determined and traders' positions settle accordingly. The event is designed to be objective and verifiable using standard market data sources, ensuring a clear winner and loser with no ambiguity around the resolution criteria.
Several catalysts could shift HOOD's price direction by June 9. Earnings announcements, user growth metrics, or changes in trading volumes would directly impact sentiment. Regulatory news—such as SEC actions or compliance updates—often moves fintech stocks sharply. Broader market movements, interest rate decisions, or shifts in retail investor sentiment also influence HOOD. Competitive developments from other brokerages, changes in crypto or options trading activity, and macroeconomic data releases can all create volatility. Traders on Polymarket will adjust odds as these events unfold, reflecting real-time reassessment of whether HOOD will finish the day up or down.