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406,019

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Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2
kalshi

Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2

Volume:
$120,244

Above 12000

 - Kalshi

Above 12000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 2, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 9:33 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 12000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,019
N/A
N/A
$4,134
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 11000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9,184
N/A
N/A
$3,725
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 11500

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,922
N/A
N/A
$1,692
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,686
N/A
N/A
$2,686
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10500

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,292
N/A
N/A
$1,769
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9500

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,744
N/A
N/A
$1,739
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,251
N/A
N/A
$1,241
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,188
N/A
N/A
$5,429
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 13000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,830
N/A
N/A
$5,628
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 13500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,665
N/A
N/A
$3,435
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 16000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,880
N/A
N/A
$3,770
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 16500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,293
N/A
N/A
$2,616
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,922
N/A
N/A
$2,296
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,821
N/A
N/A
$2,816
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 14000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,554
N/A
N/A
$1,912
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 17000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,454
N/A
N/A
$2,391
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 12500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,409
N/A
N/A
$1,982
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 14500

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,130
N/A
N/A
$2,079
Settled
No
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks whether Rivian Automotive will deliver more than 11,000 vehicles during the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome carries a probability of 40.0%, while the outcome for deliveries exceeding 11,500 vehicles stands at 30.0%. Resolution will be determined by Rivian's official Q2 2026 earnings report, scheduled for release by early September 2026, which will provide the definitive vehicle delivery figures for the quarter.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on Rivian Automotive Inc.'s official Q2 2026 report of total vehicles delivered. Each threshold from 11,000 through 17,500 (in 500-vehicle increments) constitutes a separate resolution point. The reported total vehicles delivered is compared against each threshold; if the reported figure exceeds a given threshold, that market resolves to Yes. All thresholds are evaluated independently based on the single reported total vehicles delivered figure.

Frequently asked questions

The Rivian total vehicles delivered in Q2 dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether Rivian Automotive Inc. will report above 13,000 total vehicles delivered in Q2 2026. The interface displays the current chance percentage, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $43,721. With total group volume at $120,244, this market reflects active trader interest in Rivian's production capacity and delivery performance during the second quarter. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing participants to monitor shifting sentiment about whether the automaker will exceed the 13,000-unit threshold.

Several catalysts could shift market odds before Sep 3, 2026. Production facility updates—such as announcements of expanded capacity, new manufacturing lines, or supply chain partnerships—would signal higher delivery potential. Conversely, production delays, component shortages, or workforce disruptions could pressure odds downward. Rivian's quarterly earnings calls and delivery guidance updates directly influence trader expectations. Competitor announcements and broader EV market trends also matter, as they affect investor confidence in Rivian's competitive position. Regulatory changes, interest rate movements affecting consumer demand, and macroeconomic conditions influence both production feasibility and customer order fulfillment. Finally, any management commentary on Q2 performance during investor conferences or media appearances can trigger rapid repricing as traders incorporate new forward-looking signals.