TOTAL VOLUME:

$119.4b

24H VOL:

$79,362,783

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,423,588,327

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,169,707,149

327,440

Markets across

32,786

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,257

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
polymarket
limitless

Who will win the Rio de Janeiro Governor election?

Jun 9, 2026, 10:25 PM EST - Oct 4, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$434,183
Volume 24h:
$502
337%
Liquidity:
$423,890
45%
Open interest:
$21,727N/A

Candidate A

 - Polymarket

Candidate A - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 5, 2026

Will Candidate A win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

95%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 95¢ buys you 105 shares | Odds: 95% Total Payout: $105 | Net Profit: $5 Multiplier: 1.05x | ROI: 5% | APY: 73% 33 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Candidate A

Trade
95%
Yes 95¢No 5.4¢
0.4¢
$38,171
$60,255
0%
2%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Candidate B

Trade
4%
Yes 4.7¢No 97.3¢
2¢
$32,973
$25,206
0%
9%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Candidate C

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.7¢
0.5¢
$16,207
$15,902
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Candidate D

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.9¢
0.6¢
$28,639
$17,805
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Fred Pacheco

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$26,062
$141,313
0%
0.15%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Anthony Garotinho

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$19,731
$28,289
0%
25%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Felipe Curi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$30,278
$26,073
0.02%
0.76%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

André Ceciliano

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$34,213
$19,677
0%
1%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Dr. Luizinho

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$26,738
$17,877
3%
4%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Wilson Witzel

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$27,428
$19,853
0%
0.37%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Tarcísio Motta

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$20,155
$17,339
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Chico Machado

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$26,187
$16,095
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Lindbergh Farias

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$31,716
$15,600
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Nicola Miccione

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$22,441
$5,387
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

Eduardo Pazuello

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$22,541
$3,826
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
polymarket

André Português

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$20,410
$3,688
0%
0%
N/A
1mo 3d
active
limitless

Eduardo Paes

Trade
N/A
N/A
5.2¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
active
limitless

Douglas Ruas

Trade
N/A
N/A
3.7¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 3d
active
Total markets: 18

Intro

This market tracks who will win the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election. The aggregated consensus probability shows Candidate A winning with 94.7%, while Candidate B has a 3.9% probability. Data comes from Polymarket and Limitless, with resolution based on Brazil's Superior Electoral Court. The key catalyst to watch will be the official election results declared on October 4, 2026, which will determine the market outcome and resolve all positions accordingly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets use the same resolution criteria, timeline, and official source (Brazil's Superior Electoral Court) for determining the election winner.Primary resolution logic: Brazil's Superior Electoral Court (TSE)

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the candidate who wins the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election as officially reported by the Brazilian government (TSE).
  • If no candidate is declared by June 30, 2027, the market resolves to "Other".
  • Temporary or interim governors appointed before the election do not count.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Runoff Scenario: If no candidate receives a majority in the first round, a runoff will be held on October 25, 2026, and the winner of the runoff determines the resolution.
  • Ambiguous Results: In case of ambiguity, the market resolves based solely on the official results reported by the TSE.
Timing: The market will resolve no later than June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Limitless

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Rio de Janeiro governor race aggregates real-time data from multiple platforms, showing how traders price the likelihood of each candidate winning. It displays current odds, volume of $434,183, and 24-hour volume of $502, letting you see consensus and divergence across venues. This unified view helps track market sentiment as the election approaches, highlighting any shifts in trader confidence.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final vote tally determines the winner, and once official results are published, the market settles automatically based on the confirmed outcome.

Between now and Oct 5, 2026, several signals could shift this market: major political scandals, debate performance, economic announcements, or shifts in endorsement patterns. Media coverage surges and polling updates also influence trader sentiment. As the election date nears, any surge in campaign funding or controversy will likely cause rapid price adjustments, reflecting new information on each candidate’s chances.