TOTAL VOLUME:

$146.8b

24H VOL:

$154,135,511

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,781,800,361

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,746,362,264

503,014

Markets across

37,427

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,897

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket
limitless

Who will win the Rio de Janeiro Governor election?

Volume:
$812,755

Candidate B

 - Polymarket

Candidate B - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 2:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Candidate B

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$165,975
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Douglas Ruas

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$8,973
N/A
N/A
$2,705
2mo 1w 3d
Yes
limitless

Douglas Ruas

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 20m
Yes
polymarket

Candidate A

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$249,497
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Fred Pacheco

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$142,027
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Felipe Curi

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Anthony Garotinho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Anthony Garotinho

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Candidate C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,569
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate D

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,664
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

André Ceciliano

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,936
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Wilson Witzel

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,878
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Wilson Witzel

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7
N/A
N/A
$7
2mo 1w 3d
No
polymarket

Dr. Luizinho

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,591
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Tarcísio Motta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,365
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Chico Machado

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,120
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Lindbergh Farias

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Eduardo Paes

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,501
N/A
N/A
$4,466
2mo 1w 3d
No
limitless

Eduardo Paes

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 6h 20m
No
polymarket

Nicola Miccione

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Eduardo Pazuello

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

André Português

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,713
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate H

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate I

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Candidate G

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 25 of 29

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election, forecasting which candidate will win. Currently, the consensus probability of Will Douglas Ruas winning is 99.0%, while Eduardo Paes is at 50.0%. This aggregated view combines data from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless, and will resolve based on whether Eduardo Paes wins the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election. Keep an eye on the election scheduled for October 4, 2026, and the potential runoff on October 25, 2026, as these dates will indicate the likely outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket explicitly allows for an 'Other' outcome if the election is unresolved by a specific date, while Kalshi only lists specific candidates as resolving 'Yes'.Hero tip: Consider the probability of a delayed or contested election when trading on Polymarket, as the 'Other' option provides a potential exit for uncertainty. Kalshi markets may be more sensitive to unexpected candidate performance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the winner of the election, with an 'Other' outcome if the result isn't known by June 30, 2027. Includes numerous candidate-specific questions and an 'Other' question. 'Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.' - Polymarket Description
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if a specific listed candidate (Paes, Ruas, Garotinho, Witzel) wins. No explicit handling of an 'Other' outcome or candidates not listed. 'If Eduardo Paes wins the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes.' - Kalshi Event
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Kalshi

The winner is determined by the candidate who receives the most votes according to Brazil's electoral system and either is inaugurated, sworn in, takes office, or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Resolution is based on official certification by the relevant electoral authority. If results are contested, the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction prevails. The market remains open until a rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled after announcement but before the winner takes office, the market remains open until the re-run election or expiration.

Limitless

The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

Frequently asked questions

This dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Rio de Janeiro governor race from multiple platforms, currently Polymarket and Kalshi. It provides a consensus view of the probabilities assigned to different candidates winning, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders. Total volume across these platforms currently exceeds $812,755, with $6,953 traded in the last 24 hours. By tracking these markets, you can gain insight into how perspectives on the election are evolving and compare them to traditional forecasting methods.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *stake* on an outcome, potentially revealing more about their true beliefs. Historically, prediction markets have demonstrated a strong track record of accuracy, sometimes outperforming polls, especially in dynamic situations. However, it’s important to remember that both polls and markets have limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of future events. Examining both sources provides a more comprehensive view.

Numerous factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Major political endorsements, significant policy announcements from candidates, unexpected economic developments in Rio de Janeiro, and shifts in public opinion as reflected in polling data are all potential catalysts. Any event that alters perceptions of a candidate’s chances of winning could lead to substantial price movements. Additionally, media coverage and campaign finance reports could also play a role in shaping market sentiment.