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364,467

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Reserve Bank of India decision in October
kalshi
polymarket

What will the RBI decision be?

Total volume:
$2,138
Volume 24h:
$13N/A
Liquidity:
$960
0%
Open interest:
$712
0.7%

Hike 1-25bps

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 7, 2026

Time left: 26d:19h:24m

Will the Reserve Bank of India Hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting?

58%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 68¢ buys you 147 shares | Odds: 58% Total Payout: $147 | Net Profit: $47 Multiplier: 1.47x | ROI: 47% APY not meaningful 26 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Hike 1-25bps

Trade
58%
Yes 68¢No 44¢
12¢
N/A
$624
0%
61%
$547
3w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
77¢
$68
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
58%
Yes 68¢No 44¢
Avg: 44.5¢Max: 77¢
kalshi

Maintain current rate

Trade
24%
Yes 50¢No 69¢
19¢
N/A
$248
0%
0%
$21
3w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

No Change

Trade
N/A
N/A
64¢
$333
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
24%
Yes 50¢No 69¢
Avg: 41.5¢Max: 64¢
kalshi

Cut 1-25bps

Trade
13%
Yes 10¢No 99¢
9¢
N/A
$561
0%
0%
$52
3w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
66¢
$167
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
13%
Yes 10¢No 99¢
Avg: 37.5¢Max: 66¢
kalshi

Cut more than 25bps

Trade
5%
Yes 10¢No 99¢
9¢
N/A
$593
0%
0%
$31
3w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
N/A
N/A
65¢
$243
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
5%
Yes 10¢No 99¢
Avg: 37¢Max: 65¢
kalshi

Hike more than 25bps

Trade
1%
13%
Yes 9¢No 99¢
8¢
N/A
$112
14%
14%
$61
3w 5d 19h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
N/A
N/A
75¢
$149
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3w 5d 14h
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
1%
Yes 9¢No 99¢
Avg: 41.5¢Max: 75¢
Total markets: 10

Description

This group forecasts the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) monetary policy decision regarding the policy repo rate at its October 2026 meeting. The markets assess the likelihood of rate cuts, hikes, or maintaining the current rate.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's markets resolve positively for any rate change, while Polymarket focuses on specific increase scenarios and has defined rounding rules.Hero tip: Be mindful of the specific question being asked on Polymarket. Kalshi offers broader coverage of potential outcomes, while Polymarket focuses on the possibility of rate hikes. Consider hedging across platforms if you believe a rate change is likely but aren't confident about the direction or magnitude.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Polymarket asks specific questions about increases of 25+ bps or 50+ bps. It also has rounding rules: increases/decreases < 25bps are rounded to 25bps, and > 25bps are rounded to the nearest 25bps, rounding away from 0 in cases of equidistance. "Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting?"
  • Kalshi: Kalshi resolves 'Yes' if the RBI takes any action of Cut more than 25bps, Cut 1-25bps, Maintain current rate, Hike 1-25bps, or Hike more than 25bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the policy repo rate resulting from the October 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its October 2026 meeting, scheduled for October 5 to 7, 2026, with the decision to be announced on October 7, 2026, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of India calendar (https://www.rbi.org.in/scripts/BS_PressReleaseDisplay.aspx?prid=62422). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of India Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its October 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Kalshi

The resolution of all markets depends on the official policy rate decision announced by the Reserve Bank of India following its October Monetary Policy Committee meeting. Only changes to the primary policy rate are considered; multiple policy rates do not affect outcomes. If the meeting is cancelled or delayed beyond the expiration date, the “No change” market resolves to Yes, and all others resolve to No. Emergency rate changes occurring outside scheduled meetings do not impact contract resolutions. Basis point ranges specified in each market are inclusive, meaning that the exact boundary values (e.g., 25bp or 50bp) count toward the relevant outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the likelihood of various outcomes regarding the Reserve Bank of India decision. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will the Reserve Bank of India increase the policy repo rate by 50+ bps at the October meeting? at 86.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will the Reserve Bank of India Hike 1-25bps at the October Monetary Policy Committee meeting? at 58.0%. The aggregated view provides a consensus estimate based on the combined volume of $2,138 across both platforms. This allows traders to see where the ‘wisdom of the crowd’ currently stands on the potential actions of the Reserve Bank of India, and how opinions are shifting over time.

Prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. Analysts may be influenced by institutional biases or specific economic models, while this market aggregates the views of a diverse range of traders incentivized to be accurate. The current price action suggests a probability distribution that may differ from the consensus view of economists covering the Reserve Bank of India. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of economic data or the anticipation of unforeseen events impacting monetary policy. Monitoring both sources provides a more comprehensive understanding of potential outcomes.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Differences in trading volume—Polymarket has seen 24-hour volume of $13—and user base contribute to varying price discovery processes. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Furthermore, each platform attracts traders with different expertise and risk appetites, leading to distinct market interpretations. The specific contract structures and available trading mechanisms on each platform also play a role. These factors can create temporary discrepancies, offering arbitrage opportunities for traders who identify mispricings across the two venues.

This market resolves around Oct 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Reserve Bank of India’s decision is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official announcement made by the Reserve Bank of India regarding its monetary policy decision, specifically the policy repo rate. The outcome will reflect whether the rate was increased, decreased, or held steady, as determined by the official statement. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and settlement details on both Polymarket and Kalshi following the official announcement.

Several key signals could significantly impact this market. Unexpected inflation data releases, changes in global economic conditions, or statements from Reserve Bank of India officials are all potential catalysts. Geopolitical events and shifts in commodity prices could also influence market expectations. Any indication of a change in the Reserve Bank of India’s forward guidance, or a surprise announcement regarding its monetary policy framework, would likely cause a substantial price movement. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on opportunities before Oct 7, 2026.