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Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
polymarket

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November

Aug 11, 2026, 12:29 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$205,716
Volume 24h:
$25,980
1,366%
Liquidity:
$53,087
13%
Open interest:
$39,750N/A

25 bps increase

 - Polymarket

25 bps increase - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 11d:08h:10m

Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?

65%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 66.8¢ buys you 150 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $150 | Net Profit: $50 Multiplier: 1.50x | ROI: 50% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25 bps increase

Trade
65%
Yes 66.8¢No 36¢
2.8¢
$3,855
$70,963
0.59%
53%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
polymarket

No change

Trade
33%
Yes 34¢No 69¢
3¢
$14,458
$75,005
0.85%
30%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
polymarket

50+ bps increase

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$9,107
$24,235
0%
59%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
polymarket

25 bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$17,667
$22,887
3%
32%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
polymarket

50+ bps decrease

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
—
$8,001
$12,626
0.98%
53%
N/A
1w 4d 8h
active
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the RBA November rate decision market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $1,775. It shows how traders on Polymarket are pricing the likelihood of various interest rate outcomes, offering a visual representation of market sentiment as the decision approaches. The page updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity and shifts in probability, giving users insight into crowd-sourced expectations for monetary policy.

Compared to analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations. Analysts may incorporate a wider range of economic indicators and forward-looking scenarios, sometimes leading to more conservative or divergent projections. Traders in this market react quickly to new data, news, and sentiment, which can cause odds to shift faster than traditional forecasts. As a result, discrepancies between this market and analyst consensus can highlight areas of uncertainty or emerging trends.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent possible rate outcomes. The current odds reflect the collective bet of participants, with the top outcome showing a chance of 65.4%. Volume of $205,716 indicates liquidity and interest. Prices adjust dynamically based on new economic data, central bank statements, and market sentiment, capturing the real-time expectations of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The result will reflect the official decision announced by the Reserve Bank of Australia, closing all positions based on the verified data.

Several signals could shift this market before Nov 4, 2026. Key economic indicators such as Australian employment data, inflation figures, and GDP growth will heavily influence expectations. Speeches or signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, global monetary policy moves, and commodity price changes may also impact trader sentiment. Geopolitical developments and domestic political events that affect economic outlook can cause rapid shifts in odds as the market approaches its resolution date.