TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 2:27 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This group forecasts the outcome of the 2026 Republika Srpska presidential election. Multiple candidates are listed, and markets exist for each individual candidate winning, as well as a market for 'another candidate' winning. Resolution will be based on the official results from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve positively if the specified candidate is officially declared the winner of the Republika Srpska presidential election by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.Primary resolution logic: Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba)Core resolution logic:
- Resolution hinges on the official announcement of the elected President of Republika Srpska by the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
- A candidate must be elected as President, not merely as a Vice-President, to trigger a positive resolution.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Election by Deadline: If no President is elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET (Polymarket only), the market resolves to 'Other'.
- Interim/Acting President: Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents will not satisfy the resolution criteria.
Polymarket
General elections in Bosnia and Herzegovina are scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026, including the election of the President and two Vice-Presidents of the political entity of Republika Srpska. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate elected to serve as President of Republika Srpska as a result of this election. A candidate elected as a Vice-President of Republika Srpska will not count. Interim, temporary, or acting Presidents of Republika Srpska will not count. If no such President has been elected by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Central Election Commission of Bosnia and Herzegovina (izbori.ba); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes only if the specific named candidate wins the 2026 Republika Srpska presidential election. All markets are eligible for accelerated resolution through a consensus of media calls confirming the election outcome.
