TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
predict

Republican Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Oct 14, 2026, 10:15 AM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$133,843
Volume 24h:
$4
95%
Liquidity:
$355,119
0.72%
Open interest:
N/AN/A

≤47

 - Predict

≤47 - Predict

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 10d:11h:11m

Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

43%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 46¢ buys you 217 shares | Odds: 43% Total Payout: $217 | Net Profit: $117 Multiplier: 2.17x | ROI: 117% APY not meaningful 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

≤47

Trade
43%
1%
Yes 46¢No 61¢
7¢
$42,650
$97
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

48

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 21¢No 83.1¢
4.1¢
$31,031
$54
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

50

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 14¢No 89.8¢
3.8¢
$30,812
$8
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

51

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 11¢No 94¢
5¢
$30,119
$9
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

53

Trade
5%
Yes 8¢No 97.5¢
5.5¢
$30,633
$29
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

54

Trade
3%
Yes 5¢No 99.9¢
4.9¢
$30,408
$20
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

55

Trade
2%
Yes 4¢No 99.9¢
3.9¢
$30,684
$25
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

56

Trade
1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.9¢
1.2¢
$39,256
$133,601
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

49

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.7¢
$29,875
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

52

Trade
N/A
N/A
4.2¢
$30,028
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
predict

57+

Trade
N/A
N/A
2.7¢
$29,624
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 3d 11h
active
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve according to the Republican Party’s seat count in the United States Senate as a result of the 2026 United States midterm election scheduled for November 3, 2026. The seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election. Senate members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, the Republican party are included in the count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

Frequently asked questions

On Predict, the dashboard for the 2026 Senate control market tracks the probabilities associated with various outcomes for the balance of power in the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections. You’ll find the current odds reflecting trader sentiment, a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $4. Total volume for this market is $133,843. This allows you to gauge market interest and how predictions are evolving as new information emerges.

Currently, prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market reflects what traders believe will *actually* happen, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating potential shifts in sentiment. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes been more accurate than polls in forecasting election outcomes, as they aggregate diverse perspectives and incentivize informed predictions. The difference between this market and polls can vary significantly depending on the specific race and the time remaining until the election.

On Predict, this market is priced using a mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing different outcomes for the 2026 Senate control. The price of each share directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective wisdom of the traders. On Predict, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus, providing a dynamic forecast. The market’s efficiency relies on informed participants and active trading, allowing the price to converge towards the most likely scenario.

This market resolves around Nov 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final composition of the Senate following the 2026 midterm elections is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results certified by the relevant authorities and will determine which outcome – the number of seats held by each party – matches the winning shares in this market. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic shifts, significant legislative developments, unexpected candidate announcements, and key primary election results are all potential catalysts. Changes in national or regional political trends, high-profile endorsements, or unforeseen scandals involving candidates could also cause substantial movement. Furthermore, shifts in polling data, particularly in key Senate races, will likely influence trader behavior and adjust the probabilities reflected in this market.