TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Sep 3, 10:49 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks Red Bull's sales performance relative to the same month in the previous year, using a specialized index to gauge growth or decline. The index reflects changes in consumer spending across both physical and digital channels, offering insight into brand health and market trends.
All markets in this event resolve based on the Carbon Arc Red Bull Point of Sale Growth index for August 2026, comparing it to the same month in the prior year. Each market has a specific threshold: outcomes range from significant decline (below -10%) to robust growth (above 6%). The index is derived from a daily updated panel that captures in-store and online purchases through receipt-scanning and rewards apps, ensuring real-time data alignment with the prior year's corresponding period. Importantly, resolution relies solely on the first value reported by Carbon Arc, with any subsequent corrections or revisions disregarded once the market is settled. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Red Bull or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, odds from this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of expectations for Red Bull's performance. While analysts may incorporate a wide range of metrics and long-term trends, prediction market odds capture the rapid adjustments traders make as new data emerges, potentially offering a sharper, near-term signal.
On Kalshi, traders actively set the odds for the Red Bull sales growth market through continuous bidding and asking. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current probability reflects collective expectations about sales performance relative to benchmarks. Volume of $11,938 shows trader interest, while recent 24-hour volume of $6 indicates short-term activity levels. Price movements often follow news about consumer demand, distribution changes, or competitor activity.
This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released sales data and widely accepted industry metrics, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.
Several signals could shift this market before Sep 14, 2026. Quarterly sales reports from Red Bull or its distributors may reveal unexpected growth trends. Broader market conditions, such as changes in energy prices or consumer spending habits, might also influence outcomes. Media coverage of new product launches or promotional campaigns could boost trading activity. Any major economic shifts affecting consumer behavior will likely impact odds as the resolution date approaches.