TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:01 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
The 2026 Quebec general election will determine the competitive landscape among major provincial parties. Rankings are based on the total number of valid votes each party receives across the entire province, reflecting their overall support among voters.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the final certified results from Élections Québec after the October 5, 2026 election. Rankings are determined by province-wide certified valid-vote counts or percentages under plurality voting, not by seats won. In cases of exact ties for the specified position, markets resolve proportionally (1 divided by the number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for the position and an unlisted party finishes there, all named markets resolve NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. The resolution uses the final certified result, not preliminary counts.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture a snapshot of voter intention at a specific moment, while this market aggregates the informed opinions of many individuals trading on their beliefs about the election’s ultimate outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sampling bias, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate performance, and real-time events. It's common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than polls.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome, and the price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices converge to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Kalshi, and represents the cost to take a position on a particular party finishing 5th in the Quebec election.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the final results of the Quebec election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The party that officially places 5th in the total seat count following the election will determine the winning outcome in this market. Official election results released by the relevant electoral authorities will be used to verify the outcome and settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should monitor news sources for official announcements as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Jan 1, 2027. Major shifts in polling data, unexpected candidate gaffes or strong debate performances, significant fundraising announcements, or changes in party leadership could all influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, any unforeseen events impacting the political landscape in Quebec, such as major policy announcements or economic developments, could also lead to price adjustments. Monitoring news coverage and political analysis will be crucial for understanding potential market movements.
