TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This market will reflect how Quebec's political parties perform in the 2026 provincial election, focusing specifically on securing a top-four position. The outcome depends entirely on the total votes each party receives across all constituencies.
Kalshi
The markets resolve based on the final certified results from Élections Québec after the October 5, 2026 election. Rankings are determined by province-wide certified valid-vote counts or percentages under plurality voting, not by seats won. In cases of exact ties for the specified position, markets resolve proportionally (1 divided by the number of tied entities), rounded down. If no listed party is tied for the position and an unlisted party finishes there, all named markets resolve NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. The resolution uses the final certified result, not preliminary counts.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different assessment than traditional polling averages. Polling data focuses on stated voter intentions, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, particularly when considering factors like undecided voters or the potential for strategic voting. If polls show a close race, this market might still strongly favor one outcome if traders perceive a hidden advantage for a particular party. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives inherent in each approach.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts that pay out $1 if their predicted outcome occurs. The price of a contract represents the implied probability of that outcome. As more traders buy or sell, the price adjusts to reflect the changing consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth—the number of buy and sell orders at different price levels—indicates the level of agreement among traders regarding the likelihood of each party finishing 4th in the Quebec election.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official results of the Quebec general election are verifiable from credible public reporting. The party that officially places 4th in the final seat count will determine the winning outcome for this market. The resolution will be based on the official results released by Élections Québec, and any disputes will be settled based on those official figures. Traders will be able to claim their winnings or fulfill their losing positions following the official announcement.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major policy announcements from any of the leading parties, unexpected shifts in public opinion revealed through new polling data, or significant endorsements could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Campaign gaffes or scandals involving key candidates could also lead to substantial price movements. Furthermore, any events that impact voter turnout—such as a major weather event or a change in voting regulations—could also shift the odds. Monitoring these developments will be crucial for understanding how this market evolves.
