TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks which political party secures the third-highest level of support in Quebec's 2026 general election. The outcome depends on the official vote tallies, reflecting the democratic process where parties compete for voter preference across the province.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the certified results of the 2026 Quebec general election, specifically determining which of the listed parties finishes in third place by province-wide valid-vote count or percentage. Rankings are determined using plurality voting methods, ignoring seats won. In cases of exact ties for third place, resolution is handled proportionally, with the result divided by the number of tied entities and rounded down. If an unlisted party finishes third and none of the listed parties are tied for that position, all markets resolve as NO. Parties that withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are still ranked according to the votes they receive. The final certified results from Élections Québec are used for resolution, not preliminary counts. Should the election be cancelled or postponed beyond the market's expiration date, all markets resolve as NO.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, the current pricing for the Quebec 3rd place race reflects trader expectations that differ from recent polling averages. While polls may show varying levels of support for each party, this market incorporates broader factors such as recent campaign performance, media coverage, and economic conditions. Traders often react more quickly to emerging trends than traditional polls, which can create divergence between market odds and public opinion surveys. The gap between these two measures can widen or narrow as the election approaches, depending on new developments and shifting voter sentiment.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders determine the price through continuous trading, with the current top outcome reflecting the most likely scenario based on available information. The market’s implied probability for each party finishing third is updated in real time as new data emerges, such as polling updates or major campaign events. Volume of $56,264 indicates trader interest, while 24-hour volume of $114 shows recent activity levels. The pricing mechanism allows for rapid adjustments to shifting expectations in the lead-up to Nov 5, 2026.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are officially declared and verified against credible public sources. The third-place finisher will be determined by the final vote tally reported after the Quebec general election.
