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Proctor & Gamble (PG) Q4 organic sales growth?
polymarket
kalshi

Proctor & Gamble (PG) Q4 organic sales growth?

Volume:
$70,316

Above 1%

 - Kalshi

Above 1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 29, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:17 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,034
N/A
N/A
$2,233
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,946
N/A
N/A
$1,598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,877
N/A
N/A
$1,710
Settled
Yes
polymarket

<0.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$883
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,346
N/A
N/A
$12,924
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,315
N/A
N/A
$7,652
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,007
N/A
N/A
$3,346
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,288
N/A
N/A
$2,961
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,853
N/A
N/A
$1,883
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,792
N/A
N/A
$2,864
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,371
N/A
N/A
$2,298
Settled
No
polymarket

3.5%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

0.5%-1.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$639
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

1.5%-2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$611
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5%-3.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event group tracks Procter & Gamble's organic sales growth for Q4, with markets on both Kalshi and Polymarket attempting to predict whether PG will achieve specific growth thresholds. However, the source data reveals a critical mismatch: Kalshi's rules reference McDonald's Corporation Q2 2026 comparable sales growth, while Polymarket correctly references Procter & Gamble Q4 organic sales growth, creating a fundamental data integrity failure.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi market rules contain a company identifier error, referencing McDonald's Corporation Q2 2026 comparable sales instead of Procter & Gamble Q4 organic sales. This makes Kalshi's entire ruleset logically incompatible with the stated event group and unresolvable without correction.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket as the sole reliable resolution source. Kalshi markets should be considered suspended pending data correction. If Kalshi rules are not updated to reference PG Q4 by the resolution deadline, escalate to platform support for cancellation or force-resolution guidance.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All 10 rules incorrectly reference McDonald's Corporation Q2 2026 global comparable sales growth at various thresholds (0%, 0.5%, 1%, 1.5%, 2.0%, 2.5%, 3.0%, 3.5%, 4.0%, 4.5%). Key quote: 'If McDonald's Corporation reports Above 1.5% global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.' This is fundamentally misaligned with the PG Q4 organic sales growth event.
  • Polymarket: Correctly specifies Procter & Gamble Q4 organic sales growth (year-over-year) with five bracketed ranges: <0.5%, 0.5%-1.5%, 1.5%-2.5%, 2.5%-3.5%, 3.5%+. Resolution uses official company earnings materials (press releases, investor presentations, regulatory filings). Key quote: 'This market will resolve according to Procter & Gamble's organic sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Procter & Gamble's organic sales growth (year-over-year) for the upcoming fourth fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials. The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market. The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used. Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on McDonald's Corporation's official Q2 2026 earnings report for global comparable sales growth. Each threshold from 1.5% through 4.5% (in 0.5% increments) represents a separate resolution point. The reported figure is compared directly to each threshold; if the reported growth exceeds a given threshold, that corresponding market resolves to Yes. All thresholds are evaluated independently based on the single reported comparable sales growth figure.

Frequently asked questions

The P&G Q4 organic sales growth market aggregates trader predictions across multiple venues about Procter & Gamble's organic sales expansion in the fourth quarter. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi are pricing outcomes tied to the company's reported organic growth rate, with current volume of $70,316 reflecting active interest in this earnings metric. The dashboard consolidates these cross-platform positions to show consensus expectations around whether organic sales will fall into specific growth bands, helping investors gauge market sentiment on P&G's top-line performance independent of acquisitions or currency effects.

Prediction markets often diverge from consensus analyst estimates because traders incorporate real-time sentiment, earnings whispers, and forward guidance shifts that sell-side research may lag. On this market, the odds reflect live positioning by thousands of participants rather than a handful of equity analysts, potentially capturing emerging concerns about consumer spending or P&G's pricing power faster than traditional forecasts update. Comparing the implied probabilities here to published analyst consensus can reveal where the crowd expects surprises—either upside or downside—relative to published guidance.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each venue attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and fee structures, which can create temporary price gaps on the same underlying event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also weight recent news or macro signals differently, and order-book depth varies by platform, affecting how quickly large trades move the odds. Additionally, platform-specific rules around market hours, settlement timing, and dispute resolution can influence how traders price tail risks, causing the two venues to show measurably different probabilities even hours before resolution.

Quarterly earnings beats or misses from P&G's consumer staples peers, shifts in consumer spending data, and currency headwinds or tailwinds can all reshape expectations for organic growth. Management commentary during investor calls, changes to full-year guidance, and macroeconomic reports on retail sales or inflation may prompt traders to reprice their positions. Additionally, any M&A announcements, product recalls, or competitive pressures in key categories like beauty or household care could trigger sharp repricing as traders reassess the company's organic momentum heading into the final quarter.