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Price of NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute in Q2?
kalshi

Price of NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute in Q2?

Volume:
$13,457

Above $0.24

 - Kalshi

Above $0.24 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jun 22, 11:49 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $0.24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,185
N/A
N/A
$3,099
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.64

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,698
N/A
N/A
$1,391
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.44

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,253
N/A
N/A
$1,098
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.34

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,167
N/A
N/A
$1,055
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.74

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$413
N/A
N/A
$277
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.54

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$336
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.04

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$263
N/A
N/A
$112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.94

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$227
N/A
N/A
$108
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $0.84

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$219
N/A
N/A
$80
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.24

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$143
N/A
N/A
$84
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.14

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$70
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $1.44

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$747
N/A
N/A
$586
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.94

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$522
N/A
N/A
$310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.34

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$480
N/A
N/A
$261
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.64

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$421
N/A
N/A
$159
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.84

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$362
N/A
N/A
$207
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.04

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$342
N/A
N/A
$196
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.74

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$264
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $1.54

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$201
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $2.14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$145
N/A
N/A
$78
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Intro

This market tracks whether the hourly rental price for NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute resources will exceed $0.44 by the end of Q2 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome currently stands at 98.0%. Resolution will be determined by the actual per-hour pricing data as of June 30, 2026, according to the resolution source. Watch for announcements of newer GPU generations and shifts in cloud provider pricing strategies leading up to the June 30, 2026 resolution date, as these typically influence legacy hardware costs.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the A100 SXM4 compute per-hour pricing as reported by Ornn's USD-denominated index as of June 30, 2026. The market evaluates whether the price exceeds any of several strike levels ranging from $0.24 to $2.14 per hour. All price data is sourced from Ornn (https://dashboard.ornnai.com/) and rounded to two decimal places. Revisions made to the underlying data after the expiration date are not considered. If no data is available by the expiration date, all outcomes except "No data" or "None" resolve to No.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute pricing will exceed $0.44 per hour by the end of Q2 on Kalshi. It displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume of $367 across this event. Total group volume stands at $13,457, reflecting sustained trader interest in GPU compute cost forecasting. The interface updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing participants to monitor shifting market sentiment on enterprise AI infrastructure pricing throughout the prediction window.

Prediction market odds on this event reflect aggregated trader expectations about A100 SXM4 hourly pricing, which often diverge from published analyst reports on GPU compute costs. While traditional analysts may issue quarterly forecasts based on supply-chain models and vendor pricing announcements, prediction markets incorporate real-time information and trader conviction through financial incentives. Comparing market-implied probabilities to analyst consensus can reveal where the crowd expects divergence from consensus views, particularly regarding competitive pricing pressure, cloud provider rate adjustments, or shifts in enterprise demand for high-end compute resources during Q2.

The market resolves on Jul 1, 2026, marking the end of Q2. Resolution is determined by verified pricing data for NVIDIA A100 SXM4 compute per hour at that time. The binary outcome hinges on whether the rate exceeds the $0.44 threshold or does not. Official pricing sources from major cloud providers or GPU compute platforms serve as the reference for settlement. Traders should monitor announcements from AWS, Google Cloud, Azure, and other infrastructure providers throughout Q2, as pricing adjustments or promotional rates could influence the final determination.

Key catalysts include cloud provider pricing announcements, changes in GPU supply or demand, competitive pressure from alternative accelerators, and macroeconomic shifts affecting enterprise AI spending. NVIDIA earnings calls and product roadmap updates can signal cost pressures or margin expectations. Supply-chain disruptions or manufacturing capacity announcements may alter availability and pricing. Enterprise adoption trends for large language models and generative AI workloads directly influence demand for A100 compute. Regulatory actions on AI infrastructure or data-center energy costs could reshape pricing. Competitor offerings from AMD or Intel may force price adjustments. Traders should track industry news, cloud provider earnings, and AI adoption metrics closely through Q2.