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Plague case in US by December 31?
- Polymarket
Plague case in US by December 31? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Health
Plague case in US by December 31?
$
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify. The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a confirmed case of pneumonic plague in a human is reported in the United States at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case. Publication of the underlying laboratory results is not required. A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies. A case reported only as "plague" with no form specified, and a case described only as suspected or probable, do not qualify. For the purposes of this market, the United States includes the 50 states and the District of Columbia. A case qualifies if the patient is diagnosed in the United States, regardless of where the infection was acquired. Cases diagnosed outside the United States, including in U.S. citizens abroad, do not qualify. The case does not need to be epidemiologically linked to the Irkutsk outbreak or any other specific outbreak to qualify. Resolution turns on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation, not the date of exposure, symptom onset, or laboratory result. A report published after the deadline does not count even if the infection occurred earlier. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), U.S. state or local public health authorities, and the WHO; however a consensus of credible sources will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects a different outlook than many public health analyst forecasts. While some analysts believe the risk of a plague case in the US remains low due to ongoing surveillance and preventative measures, the price action suggests traders assign a higher probability to the event occurring. This discrepancy could stem from traders incorporating factors not fully captured in traditional models, such as potential environmental changes or unforeseen outbreaks in animal populations. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a collective intelligence view, distinct from individual expert opinions.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether a plague case will be reported. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of the event happening. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the evolving consensus. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price is determined solely by supply and demand within Polymarket, and no external factors influence the pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on official reports from organizations like the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) documenting a confirmed case of plague in a US resident. The CDC’s definition of a confirmed case will be used to determine the outcome, ensuring a clear and objective standard for settlement. Traders should monitor these sources as the resolution date approaches.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any confirmed reports of unusual animal die-offs, particularly rodents, could raise concerns and drive the price higher. Increased media coverage of plague outbreaks in other parts of the world might also influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, statements from public health officials regarding increased surveillance or preventative measures could either calm or heighten anxieties. Finally, any scientific reports detailing changes in vector populations or the emergence of drug-resistant strains of the plague bacterium could also move this market between now and Jan 1, 2027.
