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PJM Western Hub average real-time power price (Week 45)
kalshi

What will the PJM Western Hub price be?

Oct 30, 2026, 5:00 PM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$59
Volume 24h:
$49N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$49
6%

Above $40/MWh

 - Kalshi

Above $40/MWh - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 03d:20h:27m

PJM Western Hub average power price above $40/MWh, Week 45?

98%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 98¢ buys you 102 shares | Odds: 98% Total Payout: $102 | Net Profit: $2 Multiplier: 1.02x | ROI: 2% High Projected APY: 1,067% 3 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $40/MWh

Trade
98%
Yes 98¢No 17¢
15¢
N/A
$46
0%
N/A
$36
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $50/MWh

Trade
72%
24%
Yes 98¢No 29¢
27¢
N/A
$13
27%
N/A
$13
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $30/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
16¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $60/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
36¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $75/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
23¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $100/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
21¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 27m
Active
kalshi

Above $150/MWh

Trade
N/A
N/A
20¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 20h 27m
Active
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks the average real-time electricity price in the PJM Western Hub region over a specific week in 2026. Participants assess whether the average price will exceed various thresholds, reflecting expectations about energy supply, demand, and market conditions during that period.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the all-hours average real-time power price at PJM Western Hub for the week ending November 6, 2026. The relevant period runs from October 30, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT to November 6, 2026 at 5:00 PM EST, including the start time but excluding the end time. Data comes from PJM Data Miner 2’s verified hourly real-time total Locational Marginal Prices (LMPs), with intervals following Eastern-time start times. The calculation involves taking a simple average of all applicable hourly prices, including any negative prices, and rounding the result to two decimal places, with exact halves rounded away from zero. If the average equals the threshold, the market resolves to No. Trading closes on November 6, 2026 at 4:59 PM EST, and the final delivery interval is included in the calculation. Only the first published prices are used; later corrections are considered only if they occur before expiration and are accepted by the Exchange as corrections of material errors. Unverified, estimated, indicative, and forecast prices are excluded. Missing data points are not filled in. If at least 95% of required intervals are available, the average is calculated using available prices. If less than 95% of intervals are available, the event resolves only if the available data conclusively determines the outcome; otherwise, it settles at the Exchange-determined last fair price under the full rules.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the PJM power price market tracks the current prices for contracts predicting the average real-time power price in the PJM Western Hub during Week 45. You can view the probabilities implied by these prices, explore the price history to see how expectations have changed over time, and monitor the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $8. The total volume traded in this market is $59, indicating the level of interest from traders. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of market sentiment surrounding future power prices.

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions in this market to specific analyst forecasts without a dedicated comparison. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. This is because traders have a financial incentive to be accurate, leading to a potentially more informed and nuanced prediction. Examining the movement of prices in this market over time can offer insights into how collective intelligence anticipates changes in the PJM power price, potentially differing from individual analyst opinions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different price ranges for the PJM Western Hub average power price during Week 45. The price of each contract reflects the market's probability assessment of that price range occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time assessment of expectations for future power prices.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome determined by the publicly reported average real-time power price in the PJM Western Hub during Week 45. The final price will be verified against credible public reporting from sources that track PJM grid data. The contract corresponding to the actual average price range will pay out $10 per contract, while all other contracts will settle to $0. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and their resulting payouts shortly after the resolution date.

Several factors could significantly influence the price of power in the PJM Western Hub and, therefore, move this market. These include weather patterns – particularly extreme temperatures driving increased demand for heating or cooling – and any unexpected outages at power generation facilities. Changes in natural gas prices, a key fuel source for many power plants, will also be a major driver. Furthermore, any announcements regarding grid reliability or regulatory changes impacting power supply could cause shifts in trader sentiment and price fluctuations in this market.