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399,592
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Closed: Jun 30, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
A pharmaceutical company is conducting a Phase 3 clinical trial to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a sublingual formulation of minoxidil as a potential hair loss treatment. The market is tracking whether this trial will report results by June 2026, regardless of the outcome.
If the Phase 3 trial SAM-002 of Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson Clinical Operations reports Success results in June 2026, the market resolves to Yes. If the Phase 3 trial SAM-002 of Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson Clinical Operations reports Mixed results in June 2026, the market resolves to Yes. If the Phase 3 trial SAM-002 of Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson Clinical Operations reports Failure results in June 2026, the market resolves to Yes. If the Phase 3 trial SAM-002 of Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson Clinical Operations reports Ambiguous results in June 2026, the market resolves to Yes. If the Phase 3 trial SAM-002 of Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson Clinical Operations reports No Results results in June 2026, the market resolves to Yes.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the Phase 3 Result: Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson market is priced as binary or multi-outcome contracts reflecting the probability traders assign to success or failure of the Phase 3 trial. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, with each cent representing 1 percent implied probability. Traders buy contracts at lower prices if they believe success is underpriced, or sell at higher prices if they view it as overpriced. Kalshi's order book displays bid-ask spreads, allowing you to see the tightest prices available and execute trades at your preferred probability level.
The Phase 3 Result: Sublingual Minoxidil by Samson market is scheduled to resolve on Jul 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official Phase 3 trial outcome announced by Samson Clinical Operations or published in peer-reviewed clinical literature. The market will settle based on whether the primary efficacy endpoints are met, safety profiles are acceptable, and regulatory guidance is satisfied. Traders should monitor Samson's press releases, SEC filings, and clinical trial databases for announcements that will trigger market resolution.
Key catalysts include interim trial data releases, enrollment milestones, safety signals or adverse event reports, competitive product approvals, regulatory feedback letters, and management guidance updates. Positive hair-growth efficacy data or favorable tolerability profiles would likely boost odds of success, while safety concerns or enrollment delays could reduce them. Competitor launches of alternative minoxidil formulations or novel hair-loss therapies may shift market perception of Samson's commercial potential. FDA or international regulatory communications about trial design adequacy or post-marketing requirements can also materially influence trader positioning ahead of the June 2026 resolution date.