TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3%
- Kalshi
Keiko Fujimori, 0-3% - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolved Jul 3, 2026
Latest in Elections
Closed: Jul 3, 3:29 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market tracks the margin of victory in Peru's 2026 presidential runoff election between the two leading candidates. On Kalshi, the probability that Keiko Fujimori wins with a margin between 0% and 3% stands at 38.0%, while the probability that Roberto Sánchez wins by that same narrow margin is 26.0%. Resolution will be determined by official results from Peru's electoral authorities. Watch for the runoff election scheduled for 2026, which will determine whether either candidate achieves a decisive or razor-thin victory.
Kalshi
The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes or electoral votes, depending on margin type) received by the candidate minus the vote percentage received by the candidate finishing immediately behind if the candidate wins, or minus the vote percentage of the first-place finisher if the candidate loses. For percentage points, margins are based on vote percentages; for raw votes, margins are based on total vote counts; for electoral votes, margins are based on electoral vote totals. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes are summed. If the candidate wins, the margin is positive; if the candidate loses, the margin is negative; if the candidate ties for first, the margin is 0. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only candidate, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast (for raw votes).
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect traders' collective expectations about the runoff margin, often diverging from traditional polling. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, expert analysis, and financial incentives for accuracy. Traders betting on margin outcomes may weight recent campaign developments, regional turnout patterns, or economic shifts differently than pollsters. Comparing Kalshi odds to published polling averages reveals whether markets are pricing in scenarios polls have not yet captured or are more conservative about certain outcomes.
The market resolves on Jun 7, 2027. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced by Peru's electoral authority following the presidential runoff. The margin represents the percentage-point difference between the winner and runner-up. Outcomes are typically binary—for example, whether the margin exceeds or falls below a specified threshold like 12%. Once official results are certified and the margin is confirmed, the contract settles to either 100 cents for the winning outcome or 0 cents for the losing outcome.
Key catalysts include campaign rallies and candidate messaging that shift voter enthusiasm, economic announcements affecting regional support, and breaking news about either candidate. Polling releases closer to election day often trigger sharp market moves as traders recalibrate margin expectations. Turnout forecasts, particularly from key demographics or regions, can signal whether the race will tighten or widen. International developments, endorsements from influential figures, or debate performances may also reshape trader confidence in the final margin. As Jun 7, 2027 approaches, intraday volatility typically increases as markets price in final positioning.
