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Percent of Winter Wheat in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will winter wheat reach?

Volume:
$1,127

45% to 54%

 - Polymarket

45% to 54% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$169
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$174
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$96
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$95
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the winter wheat drought market displays the current probabilities of different outcomes regarding the percentage of US winter wheat experiencing drought conditions as of the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find a price feed reflecting the implied probabilities, a history of price movements, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $191. The total volume traded in this market is $1,127. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and track how predictions evolve over time.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for agricultural conditions. While analysts often provide ranges based on models and historical data, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting real-time assessments of various factors influencing drought conditions. Discrepancies between the market’s implied probability and expert predictions can highlight overlooked risks or opportunities, offering a valuable signal to those following the winter wheat crop. It’s important to note that both approaches have limitations and can evolve as new information becomes available.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of different outcomes. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating an implied probability distribution. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means that the price reflects the collective intelligence of the traders participating in the market, and can change rapidly as new information emerges or sentiment shifts. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the percentage of winter wheat in drought.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official drought percentage reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor for the week of October 6, 2026. This widely respected source provides a comprehensive assessment of drought conditions across the United States, and its data will serve as the definitive basis for determining the winning outcome in this market. Traders should monitor this source as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market before its resolution. Key indicators include updated weather forecasts, particularly those predicting precipitation levels in major winter wheat growing regions. Reports from the USDA on crop progress and condition will also be closely watched. Unexpected shifts in global commodity prices or geopolitical events affecting agricultural trade could also influence trader sentiment. Any significant changes to long-range climate predictions, or the emergence of new pest or disease outbreaks impacting wheat yields, could also move this market.