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Percent of Winter Wheat in drought - week of October 20, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will winter wheat reach?

Volume:
$360

45% to 54%

 - Polymarket

45% to 54% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 10:36 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
100%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$65
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
0%
98%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 20, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 20, 2026 is published by October 29, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 20, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for winter wheat acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 20, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national winter wheat acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 20, 2026 is published by October 29, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for winter wheat acreage with an effective date on or before October 20, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, analysts are broadly focused on the impact of El Niño on winter wheat production, with some predicting increased drought risk in key growing regions. This market allows for a more granular assessment of that risk, as traders are specifically forecasting the percentage of acreage affected. While analyst reports offer qualitative assessments, this market provides a quantitative, real-time view of expectations. Discrepancies between analyst forecasts and this market’s pricing could indicate differing interpretations of the same data or a greater degree of uncertainty reflected in the prediction market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders enter the market, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s liquidity—represented by the trading volume—influences how quickly prices respond to new information. Currently, the most actively traded outcome is the expectation that 35% to 44% of winter wheat acreage will be in drought.

This market resolves around Oct 22, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The percentage of U.S. winter wheat acreage experiencing drought will be determined based on data from the U.S. Drought Monitor, a widely respected source for drought information. Traders will be looking for data released shortly before and after the resolution date to assess the final outcome. The market will settle to the percentage range that aligns with the U.S. Drought Monitor’s assessment of drought conditions during the specified week.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Updates from the U.S. Drought Monitor, particularly any changes in drought classifications for key wheat-growing states, will be closely watched. Weather forecasts predicting continued dry conditions or, conversely, increased precipitation, will also influence trading activity. Reports on winter wheat planting progress and crop health could provide additional clues. Unexpected geopolitical events impacting agricultural commodity markets could also introduce volatility. Any news affecting global grain supplies or demand could indirectly influence perceptions of drought risk and move this market.