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Percent of Soybeans in drought - week of October 6, 2026
polymarket

What drought percentage will soybeans reach?

Volume:
$605

25% to 34%

 - Polymarket

25% to 34% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 10, 2026

Closed: Oct 10, 1:01 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25% to 34%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$184
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

35% to 44%

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$146
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Under 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15% to 24%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

55% or more

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

45% to 54%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for soybeans acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national soybeans acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for soybeans acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the reported D1-D4 drought percentage for soybeans acreage in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of October 6, 2026. Brackets: Under 15% / 15% to 24% / 25% to 34% / 35% to 44% / 45% to 54% / 55% or more. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". D1-D4 is the cumulative share of national soybeans acreage in moderate drought (D1) or worse, which is the "D1-D4" column the source publishes. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. The first value published for that week is final, and that publication is the revisions cutoff. Subsequent revisions will not be considered. Published value with decimals will be rounded to the nearest whole number using standard rounding conventions (0.5 rounds up). Brackets are inclusive of their stated endpoints. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous print under the preceding paragraph, which will be used even if published after the cutoff. If no value for the week of October 6, 2026 is published by October 15, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published D1-D4 value for soybeans acreage with an effective date on or before October 6, 2026. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Agricultural Commodities in Drought Row Crops Data Table, maintained by the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln in partnership with USDA, at https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?1.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the soybean drought market displays the current odds of the percentage of US soybeans experiencing drought conditions exceeding various thresholds during the week of October 6, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has priced in information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $334. The total volume traded on this market is $605. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to potential drought impacts on the soybean crop.

Currently, the collective wisdom of traders in this market offers a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the severity of the soybean drought. While expert opinions and agricultural reports provide valuable insights, this market aggregates diverse viewpoints and allows them to be expressed through financial incentives. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and those offered by analysts often reflect differing assumptions about factors influencing drought conditions, such as weather patterns, irrigation practices, and government policies. It’s a real-time assessment of potential outcomes, constantly updated as new information becomes available.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to changing conditions and provides a valuable signal about the potential extent of the soybean drought. The current price reflects the aggregate assessment of all traders on the platform.

This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final percentage of US soybeans experiencing drought conditions during the week of October 6, 2026, as reported by a reputable source of agricultural data, will determine the winning outcome. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final reported percentage and their positions in the market. The resolution will be based on officially published data, ensuring a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market leading up to resolution. Major weather events, such as prolonged periods of rainfall or extreme heat, will undoubtedly impact trader sentiment. Updates from the US Drought Monitor and other agricultural agencies regarding drought conditions across key soybean-growing regions will be closely watched. Additionally, any significant changes in agricultural policy or irrigation practices could also move the market. Unexpected shifts in long-range weather forecasts, particularly those predicting drier or wetter conditions, are likely to cause fluctuations in the price of shares.